Leading prediction firms share a commonality: Donald Trump Jr.

Saturday, January 17, 2026 11:48 AM
Photo:  Donald Trump, Jr. flickr photo by Gage Skidmore shared under a Creative Commons (BY-SA) license
  • Sharon LaFraniere, The New York Times

The companies running online prediction markets, where ordinary people bet on real-world events, can count on intense interest in what President Trump might have up his sleeve.

Traders this month are wagering millions on whether the president will take over Greenland, whom he will nominate to lead the Federal Reserve and whether the government will shut down again. Less than two weeks ago, someone netted an eye-popping $410,000 payout betting that Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, would lose power by the end of the month.

At the intersection of the prediction market industry and Trump world is Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son.