Researchers hailed Kalshi’s prediction market data in a new Federal Reserve paper, delivering a significant vote of confidence in the emerging platform as it weaves its way into the economic mainstream.
It’s a credibility win for Kalshi and the broader prediction market industry — and a setback for state regulators, gambling groups and critics who argue these platforms are little more than speculative betting.
The researchers found Kalshi markets may outperform traditional derivatives and survey forecasts on key economic data.
“Our study highlights the promise of prediction markets as a new benchmark for measuring expectations and informing monetary policy decisions,” wrote the Fed’s Anthony M. Diercks, Northwestern’s Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
