It began innocuously enough. A stock analyst pulled data on betting results to argue that users of booming prediction markets were losing money faster than on traditional gambling apps.
Then it spiraled. Kalshi Inc., the biggest US prediction market, told Bloomberg the analysis wasn’t just wrong. It was part of an “extortion” plot by the startup behind the data.
The founder of Juice Reel, the small data outfit, stood by the numbers and said Kalshi’s allegations were a “complete fabrication.” It was Kalshi that had tried to pressure him to say the data was inaccurate, he said. Kalshi changed its tone hours later and said that while it continued to dispute the findings, “after further review, we don’t believe the intention was extortion.” Kalshi denied it pressured Juice Reel to repudiate the data.
