A sprawling network of online prediction markets is cashing in on the war in Ukraine, transforming territorial losses, ceasefire timelines, and even potential nuclear escalation into betting opportunities worth tens of millions of dollars. Platforms such as Polymarket and its affiliated visualization tool Polyglobe have enabled users to gamble on nearly every aspect of Russia’s full-scale invasion – from the fall of frontline towns to whether a ceasefire will be reached by specific dates.
While artillery strikes, trench warfare and missile attacks define daily life for Ukrainians, a global spectator market has emerged, wagering on battlefield outcomes. As argued by civic activist Serhiy Sternenko, the war has been a tragedy for Ukrainians, yet for some abroad, it has become little more than a “gambling game.”
