A report from a Wall Street analyst is providing some optimism that tourism will pick up in November and that the Canelo-versus-Crawford boxing match at Allegiant Stadium on Saturday was a big boost for the city.
Barry Jonas of Truist Securities said their latest room-rate survey shows the summer softness has continued through October, but their first read for November “suggests modest improvements.”
Jonas said this aligns with commentary from Strip executives who call November a “potential fourth-quarter inflection” after a third-quarter likely similar to the second quarter.
“Week-over-week trends are mostly improving, likely fueled by shorter booking windows,” Jonas said. “That said, we have limited data so far for October and November and trends could change meaningfully. Overall, we could see some third-quarter-estimate risks (with earnings), but think trends are mostly priced in, while fourth-quarter improvements could benefit the stocks.”
For MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment, third-quarter room rates are tracking down 6% and 17%, respectively, Jonas said. Weekends are down 6% and 18%, while weekdays are down 7% and 13%, respectively.
While the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority won’t publish August data until the end of the month, Jonas said MGM fell 4%, while Caesars was down 27%. Most of August’s weakness was on the weekends compared to the weekdays, where rates were 24% higher year over year at MGM and 19% lower at Caesars.
September data shows rates continuing to trend lower, with MGM down 12% and Caesars down 11%, Jonas said. Weekends were 8% lower for MGM and 9% lower for Caesars. Weekdays were down 17% for MGM and 14% for Caesars.
“While not significant enough to positively swing the entire month, we note that the weekend of 9/12-14 saw a boost in rates, with the Strip up +41% year over year due to the Canelo vs. Crawford boxing event,” Jonas said. “We think the Strip should at a minimum benefit from increased gaming play during that weekend.”
As for October, it remains soft year over year, but the November read looks better, Jonas said. MGM rates in October are down 14%, while Caesars rates are down 11%. For November, MGM is down 1%, while Caesars is up 4%.
“This aligns with management commentary pointing to November as a possible inflection point and potentially driving any fourth-quarter improvements,” Jonas said. “Overall, operators remain positive for the fourth quarter and 2026, given the stronger event and convention calendar.”
