A Wall Street analyst said most Las Vegas Strip operators aren’t expecting growth in adjusted earnings from the first quarter, but that could change in the second quarter, with good signs to start 2026 as hotel occupancy is tracking up for February.
Barry Jonas with Truist Securities issued a note following the Nevada Gaming Control Board’s releasing gaming figures Friday that showed an 11% decline in January, while the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority reported only a 2.2% decline in visitation, the smallest decline in a year.
Jonas noted that convention attendance was up 7% in January and revenue per room and average daily room rates were up 4.5% and 7%, respectively, for the first time in eight months.
Surveys show that the Strip’s revenue per room and average day rates were trending up 23% and 8%, respectively, in February. Occupancy was also tracking up 13%, Jonas said.
“Despite these improvements, we still think most operators are not expecting Q1 EBITDAR growth, and we are looking closely at Q2 for a potential inflection,” Jonas said.
January Strip gaming revenue fell 11% year-over-year “on very soft baccarat,” though when normalized was up 4%. Excluding baccarat, total casino win, a measure used to gauge the health of the gaming market, rose 0.5%, Jonas said.
Per the Nevada Gaming Control Board, slot gaming revenue was up 3% year-over-year, as handle grew 7%, with the hold down 35 basis points, Jonas said.
Daniel Politizer, an analyst with J.P. Morgan, said slot handle growth of 7% in January was the highest growth rate since September 2025. The 9% increase in table drop was the highest since January 2025.
Locals casinos’ gaming revenue was also down 3.5% but when normalized was also better at up 3.5%, Jonas said.
