With seven months officially in the books, Reno-based gaming analyst and consultant Ken Adams said there has been “one dominant narrative” when it comes the nation’s casino industry.
In states where casino markets are not expanding, revenues are either flat or have been down every month. In other jurisdictions, monthly revenue growth is attributable to new resorts that have opened in the last 12 months.
“On the jurisdictional level, the causes vary even though expansion either within a jurisdiction or on its borders is always a significant contributing factor,” Adams wrote in this month’s 2017 Adams Revenue Revue, which he produces for CDC Gaming.
Through the first seven months of 2017, gaming revenue nationwide in the 21 states tracked by Adams is up 3.16 percent to almost $24.3 billion. In July, gaming revenue rose 1.63 percent to almost $3.6 billion. During the month, 12 states reported gaming revenue increases while nine reported decline numbers.
Adams said July 2017 had a strong beginning because gasoline prices were lower than a year ago, affording more visitors the ability to travel over the Fourth of July weekend. However, the holiday weekend calendar wasn’t as favorable; with the fourth falling on a Monday in 2017 as opposed to a Tuesday a year ago.
“Even with the cards stacked against this July, actual revenues were up 1.63 percent over last year,” Adams said.
The gaming revenue declines in the nine states were minimal with Iowa recording the largest dip, just 3.1 percent. Atlantic City had a 2.7 percent gaming revenue decline in July, which was attributed to the closing of the Trump Taj Mahal. Take away the Taj numbers and the remaining casinos had a 2.9 percent increase. Online gaming revenue, which grew 18.5 percent in July, is fueling the Boardwalk.
“Atlantic City has been squeezed by Pennsylvania and New York and only eight casinos remain open, but those casinos are doing better in 2017,” Adams said.
Nevada had one of the other gaming revenue declines during July, with the state down 1.73 percent. The major factor was the Strip, where baccarat revenue declines of 17 percent sent the whole market down by 7.7 percent. The figure negated positive results on other markets.
“The Strip is responsible for such a large portion of the state’s revenue that it always strongly impacts the total picture,” Adams said.
Maryland recorded the largest gaming revenue increase during the month – 34 percent – but that was largely responsible to the opening of MGM National Harbor last December. While growing the market, the new resort – located just 10 miles from Washington D.C. – has also taken away business from it two closest competitors; Maryland Live! in nearby Anne Arundel and the Horseshoe Casino Baltimore.
“Maryland has the rest of this year to enjoy the benefits of a new casino and then it will be subject to the same forces as other states: the local economy and competition in neighboring states,” Adams wrote.
In New York, gaming revenue grew 15 percent, but was primarily due to the opening of three new casinos.
Two maturing gaming states had mixed July results for differing reasons.
Louisiana grew revenue 1.5 percent, a sign that the state is on the road to recovery. New Orleans is also making a comeback. A city-wide smoking ban that started in 2015 zapped revenue at Harrah’s New Orleans, the area’s largest casino.
In Pennsylvania, gaming revenue was down less than 1 percent.
“(Pennsylvania’s) dramatic growth of the early years is a thing of the past,” Adams said. “At the moment, the industry is stable.”
CDC Gaming distributes the Adams Revenue Revue to premium subscribers.
Follow @howardstutz on Twitter.
