Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Sweepstakes at G2E
In an October 14 note, Analyst David Katz of Jefferies commented on meetings the company hosted at the recent Global Gaming Expo with more than 20 companies and investors. One takeaway was that change may be coming from an unexpected source.
“We were involved in much discussion about sweepstakes in the US, potentially a legal work-around for offering online casino-style products,” Katz wrote.” Operators and investors wondered whether the rise of sweepstakes could act as a catalyst to kickstart U.S. online casino legalization, similarly to Daily Fantasy Sports and the advance of online sports betting.”
Companies on the upswing
Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas also commented on G2E in October 11 note. Jonas wrote that there was “no let down in strong game and cabinet content across the industry.
“Operators we spoke with still saw Aristocrat on top, with Light & Wonder still making gains amidst a very diverse offering. Despite the Dragon Train setback, we left the show still thinking the sell-off represents a buying opportunity. Some operator concerns remain over impending M&A (IGT/Everi likely more than AGS) could create near-term opportunities for others. Beyond gaming tech, operators continue to battle the ‘peak Vegas’ narrative, while regionals chug along in flattish territory and digital drives growth.”
Missouri and Maryland monthly revenue
Analyst Joseph Greff of J. P. Morgan October 10 looked at gaming revenue in Missouri and Maryland.
“For the month of September, gross gaming revenues in Missouri were $150.1 million, down 5.4% year over year and 7% above the comparable 2019 period,” Greff wrote. “Slot revenues were down 5% year over year, while table revenues were down 6%. We note that Missouri had a more significant impact during September from Hurricane Helene relative to other domestic markets.”
Greff added that for September, “the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Commission reported online sports betting gross revenues of $63.5 million, up 48% year over year on handle of $519 million, up 23% year over year and implying a 12.2% hold rate (up 201 basis points year over year).
“We highlight that ESPN BET generated 3% handle share in September, in line with its 3% handle share in August and July, while its GGR share was 2%, in-line with its GGR share in August and below its 3% in July.”
Caesars at G2E
Also at G2E, Jefferies’ Katz met with Caesars. In an October 14 note, he wrote that Caesars “confirmed significant potential value creation from lower interest rates combined with lower forward capex, additional cash contributions from the sale of non-core assets, and digital and Las Vegas growth next year. Debt paydown remains Caesar’s top priority, though it made clear that share repurchases ($141 million bought back during 3Q24 and newly authorized $500 million program) remain compelling at current market prices/valuation. It also reiterated its confidence in a $500 million EBITDA run-rate in its digital division for next year.”