Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Investors focused on prediction markets
David Katz of Jefferies on September 7 in a release wrote that “the focus of investors remains prediction markets and its impact on the online sports betting landscape in the U.S. The partnership announced by Flutter with CME and expectation that DraftKings would announce something similar suggest aligning resources without entering the market, which is the correct strategy. We expect federal legalization becomes more possible, with states forced to follow. The complex issues remain forefront while expectations are for a positive football season for regulated operators.”
Hotel revenues slightly up
C. Patrick Scholes of Truist Securities, in a September 4 note, wrote that overall “U.S. revenue per available room was +0.2% year-over-year for the week ending August 30, 2025, per STR/CoStar, above the prior week’s result of -1.3% year-over-year and above the trailing 10-week average of -1.2% year-over-year.”
“Last week’s results reflected similar macro themes as in recent weeks. 1) Bifurcation by chain scale with luxury outperformance (even more than recent weeks): Luxury revenue per available room was +5.5% year-over-year, above Upper Upscale by 510 basis points and above Economy by 960 basis points. 2) Group attrition: Group occupancy was -6.6%. 3) Tough hurricane year-over-year comp. 4) Soft overall U.S. leisure as evident for the start of Labor Day weekend with Saturday revenue per available room -0.5% and Saturday Resort revenue per available room -3.6%.”
Second-quarter earnings positive
Chad Beynon of Macquarie on September 4 noted that “2Q earnings were better than expected with ~60% of casino operators beating consensus by ~8%.
“Second-quarter regional commentary was positive, as management cited lower end growth for the first time in ~2 years, while rated-play remains healthy, “Beynon wrote. “Second half regional EBITDA estimates were unchanged post 2Q, while ’26 estimates increased by 0.6%, driven by MGM (high-end regional properties) and Red Rock Resorts/Boyd (LVL strength).
“The same could not be said for Vegas, which saw accelerating softness in 2Q, particularly on the non-gaming front. This caused 3Q estimates revised lower by ~5%, but down just 1% for 4Q and 2026 with expectations of a rebound in group/conventions, while high-end properties continue to outperform evidenced by Wynn’s Vegas growth in 2Q.”
