Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Gaming and Leisure Property outlook
Analyst Barry Jonas of Truist Securities February 23 posted a statement about Gaming and Leisure Properties.
“GLPI Q4 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) in line to us but beat the Street by +1%, though 2025 AFFO/share guidance came in -2% below the Street at the midpoint,” Jonas wrote. “Management highlighted several explanations for the delta, but we note GLPI regularly beats its initial guidance.
“At the same time, the pipeline remains active. We lower our 2025E AFFO/share by -1% to $3.86, closer to the high-end of the guide, but keep our 2026 estimate the same as well as our $60 price target. We reiterate our Buy rating, seeing GLPI as well positioned for growth while its cushy rent coverage ratios (1.79x-2.55x) highlight the safety of its cash flows.”
Gaming foot traffic
Jefferies analyst David Katz February 23 examined January gaming trends. Notably, “Foot traffic data in January has continued the choppiness seen in the gaming environment over the past couple years,” Katz wrote. “In January, Placer data indicated foot traffic, app downloads, and social media engagement showed weakness across the industry. Although we saw strength with Churchill Downs, which outperformed its peers (and saw foot traffic increase 15% year-over-year, the peer set experienced negative traffic, which is relatively in-line with initial monthly gaming results. In our view, the growth for Churchill Downs can be attributed to the company’s recent opening of The Rose Gaming Resort (in Dumfries, Virginia).
Churchill Downs investors’ call
Katz also looked at results for Churchill Downs after its February 20 investors’ call. “The key debates are the ROI on capital spending and the path to falling leverage, both of which underpin confidence in the new projects. Our assessment is that returns on most projects have been adequate, if not well above hurdle rates, albeit individually imperfect. The key is acceleration at the latest project, The Rose, which started slowly but we believe can be productive. In total, we believe the recent downside proves an opportunity. Reiterate Buy.”
Wynn Resorts’ strength
Analyst Joseph Greff of J.P. Morgan February 21 looked at Wynn Resorts. “We update our model following Wynn’s stronger-than-anticipated 4Q24 results, with total property-level EBITDAR of $619 million coming in 11% above our/Street’s $559/$560 million, with meaningful upside in Las Vegas, where EBITDAR of $267 million was 20%/16% above our/Street estimates, and 6%/3% above when excluding $30 million of high table hold. In Macau, Wynn generated EBITDAR of $293 million, which was 7%/6% above our/Street’s $274 million/$276 million, and 2% above when excluding $12 million of high table hold. EBH EBITDAR of $59 million came in modestly below our/Street’s $62 million/$61 million. Wynn repurchased $200 million of stock during the 4Q24 and has repurchased ~$150 million in the 1Q25 to date.”
