Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Reaction to Bally’s results
In a statement, Jefferies’ David Katz March 6 reacted to Bally’s results for the fourth quarter of 2024, which included the cancellation of the company’s earnings call. “Underperformance in Q4 was driven by weakness in casinos and resorts and North American interactive, partially offset by strength in International interactive due to ongoing MSD growth in the UK,” Katz wrote. “Furthermore, the company recently completed the acquisition of The Queen Entertainment, which should drive incremental growth in the long term, and is expected to remain publicly listed albeit controlled. Overall, we remain measured on elevated leverage and forthcoming capital needs. Reiterate Hold.”
Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas also analyzed Bally’s results.
“Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was far below (-16%/-26%) our and the Street’s estimates on continued casinos and resorts weakness,” Jonas wrote. “The earnings call was canceled last minute and the release had more limited disclosures than normal. We expect the 10-K (report) to come out next week and our model is under review in the interim.
“While we see the potential for value with the Queen merger (closed in February), the Chicago permanent facility (still planned by management for September 2026) and optionality at the Tropicana site (in Las Vegas), we remain Hold with challenging near term trends, limited float, and sizable debt burden with unclear visibility for meaningful deleverage.”
AGS, Everi 4Q earnings
Barry Jonas of Truist Securities also looked at results for AGS and Everi in a March 7 statement.
“AGS and Everi reported Q4 earnings over the past week, as their respective take-private deals remain on schedule to close in 2H25/3Q25,” Jonas wrote. “We make no major changes to our AGS estimates, and we lower our Everi ‘25E/’26E EBITDA estimates -3%/-3% respectively. We maintain our price targets and see minimal risk to either deal close.
“Everi Q4 Adjusted EBITDA of $75 million came in -14%-10% below our/Street estimates. Net revenues of $189.5 million were below -7%-4% to us/Street estimates.
“AGS’s Q4 Adjusted EBITDA of $45.5 million was +3% to both us and the Street, with an electronic gaming machine EBITDA ($38 million) miss of -4%/-3% to us and the Street offset by strong interactive results ($4 million EBITDA beat by +225%/+125%). Net revenues were +6%/+3% to us and the Street, with consolidated EBITDA margins of 44% -106 basis points less favorable than we had modeled though +3 basis points above the Street.”
Las Vegas Strip room rates
J. P. Morgan’s Joseph Greff looked at Las Vegas Strip room rates for the week of March 30-April 5.
“For the survey period, relative to the comparable period 2024, midweek rates are +55% and weekend rates are +26% (+45% overall).
“By company: MGM rates are +19% for the midweek and flat for the weekend (+13% overall); Caesars’ rates are +101% for the midweek and +40% for the weekend (+76% overall); Wynn Resorts rates are +52% for the midweek and +51% for the weekend (+51% overall); Venetian/Palazzo rates are +94% for the midweek and +51% for the weekend (+82% overall).”
