A Wall Street analyst said while engagement was strong for the Super Bowl, the outcome is “slightly less favorable” for the nation’s legal sportsbooks.
Chad Beynon with Macquarie Equity Research estimated a below-average Super Bowl hold rate of 0% to 5%, depending on the level of same-game parlays and prop bets. Those bets were a “slight positive” for sportsbooks.
“Although the game result represented our worst-case scenario previewed last week (Philadelphia and the over), we think the same-game parlays and prop bets were a slight positive for sportsbooks and will result in a positive market hold rate, with individual operator hold rates dependent on the degree to which (those bets) are represented in handle,” Beynon said.
On the negative side for sportsbooks, some 64% of public bettors took Kansas City while 58% of bettors took Philadelphia +1.5. Positively for sportsbooks, Saquon Barkley and Travis Kelce failed to record a touchdown, two of the most-bet player props, Beynon said.
“Moreover, we estimate live/halftime bets were positive for sportsbooks, with most public bettors taking Kansas City at halftime (about +15 points), which ended up being a losing bet,” Beynon said. “Lastly, we think Philadelphia winning was positive for sportsbooks with regards to futures bets; we estimate sportsbooks had a liability in a Kansas City win scenario. As a reminder, last year, DraftKings was able to hold in line with expectations from a total hold rate perspective due to diversified bets and parlays, despite a negative game outcome similar to this year.”
As for the silver lining, it came from customer acquisition and NFL growth in new demographics, Beynon called the Super Bowl a “major positive” for sportsbooks in that regard.
“Super Bowls are always great events for acquiring new customers, but with Super Bowl LIX likely setting viewership records, partly driven by over 60% of the U.S. population now having access to online sports betting, in addition to strong side stories (Taylor Swift and President Donald Trump’s involvement), we view Super Bowl LIX as unequivocally positive for the NFL and sportsbooks,” Beynon said.
FanDuel noted that $16.6 million in bets were placed on the Super Bowl, which is 19% higher than last year and represents a growth acceleration relative to recent monthly trends.
“Overall, Super Bowl LIX was a decent result for the sportsbook, as more customers backed the Chiefs in this game and in the futures pool than the Eagles,” said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook. “There were a variety of touchdown scorers, which would usually be favorable to the customers, but unfortunately, Saquon Barkley was the most popular SGP leg and he didn’t see the end zone.”
Caesars Entertainment reported the Super Bowl holds the title for the most bet-on event in Caesars Sportsbook history in terms of total bets placed.
Super Bowl LIX also set a record for the most same-game parlays placed on a single event in Caesars Sportsbook’s history. To that same end, Super Bowl LIX marked the first Super Bowl in Caesars Sportsbook history in which customers placed more same-game parlays than straight wagers on the game.
“With the Chiefs falling behind early, we observed a substantial handle and wagers increased on their chances of a comeback,” said Craig Mucklow, Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading. “A significant amount of wagers flooded in on KC at longer odds on the money line and all spreads we posted, all the way up to +28.5. This rare opportunity to bet on Patrick Mahomes at such generous spreads and odds proved to drive significant growth and led to our largest in-play handle for a Super Bowl ever.”
Caesars Sportsbook at Caesars New Orleans recorded its highest-ever total number of in-person bets placed for a single event.
Looking ahead to next year, Caesars Sportsbook said it adjusted the Eagles from +700 to +625 and the Chiefs from +580 to +650 to win Super Bowl LX.
