Be it former President Donald Trump, forced-to-bow out President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris stepping up as the Democratic nominee, the fascination with the U.S. presidential election is being followed all over the world.
As such, the 2024 presidential race is expected by many to become the biggest event in the history of gambling. The Betting on Politics: U.S. Presidential Election panel at SBC Summit Lisbon explored how operators are gearing up for this election and how strategies for managing political betting differ from those used for major sporting events.
While betting on elections is largely banned in the United States, overseas betting operators are seeing a spike in wagers that’s different from any other betting market.
“Betfair facilitated £1.7 billion (around $2.28 billion) on the U.S. election bets,” said Sam Rosbottom, Senior Public Relations Manager at Betfair. “For comparison, one our biggest betting events, which is the Soccer Euros that took place June 2024, saw bets of £1.5 billion (£2 billion).”
Rosbottom said, similar to the presidential race itself, betting on the U.S. election is volatile.
“As the market itself is becoming the central story, the betting trends are like a rollercoaster ride,” he said. “We saw £1 million (over $1.3 million) in bets on the presidential debate alone.”
“Love them or hate them, the characters that make the story so interesting are the ones that bring electing betting to such huge popularity,” Joe Lee, Head of Strategy & Performance at AK Bets, said. “Be it Trump in the U.S., or similarly, Boris Johnson, who had his fair share of colorful events when being Mayor of London and then Prime Minister – the emotions, the scandal, the extreme is what makes people take interest and place bets. Not many people want to bet on boring characters.”
Although Betrair is owned by Flutter Entertainment, which in effect makes it a sister company to Flutter-owned FanDuel, one of the United States’ largest sportsbooks, the revenues it sees from election betting come from overseas.
“65 percent of the money taken on the [election betting] market comes from the UK, 15 percent from Australia and 9 percent from Ireland,” Rosbottom said.
“For now, and for the foreseeable future, U.S. election betting is an international phenomenon that isn’t available in the U.S. as it’s largely illegal,” Jason Trost, CEO of Smartkets, said. “There is a debate along the lines of which agency this type of betting falls under.”
“For now, betting on politics is considered something very wrong that should be banned and made illegal,” Lee said of the United States. “But if you’re looking at the history of how collegiate and professional sports betting was viewed up until recently, they all carried negative perceptions until tax revenues started to pour in and help the communities.”
When asked about the current performance and the opportunity, Trost said, “there is a huge opportunity that is not being captured right now. For now, the market is still small compared to what it can be. Yes, £1.7 billion has been stated here, but let’s keep in mind that this is a market that’s running for over four years, and many people are buying and selling positions at the exchange. I believe it can be much bigger.”
