A Wall Street analyst said Las Vegas Strip casinos might surpass consensus estimates for first-quarter earnings based on room revenue, as hotel occupancy and visitation increased last month.
Chad Beynon, a senior gaming analyst at Macquarie, sent a note to investors Friday touting February’s gaming numbers that showed $696 million in revenue on the Strip, a 1% year-over-year increase. Beynon said gaming revenue would have risen to 4%, if not for low slot hold of 7.6% versus the long-term average of 8%.
“Given the softer-than-expected monthly gaming revenue results driven by lower hold, we lower our first-quarter Strip gaming revenue forecast to -2.5% year-over-year (from -0.5% prior),” Beynon said. “This compares to our expectation for same-store U.S. regional gaming revenue growth of +2% year for the first quarter.”
Beynon said the positive is that the non-gaming front is improving, with Strip revenue per room exceeding expectations for two consecutive months. February Strip revenue per room was 6% higher year-over-year and up 4% for the quarter and March data suggests revenue-per-room growth could reach high single-digits. Visitation to Las Vegas rose 2% in February and with it, occupancy improved on the Strip and weekends.
“This is a major improvement from -8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the main reason why we think Vegas segments can outperform current consensus in first quarter earnings,” Beynon said of revenue per room. “Following the release of February’s data and recent re-calibration of Street expectations, we now estimate that the risk to first quarter earnings has flipped to the upside for Vegas segments.”
Beynon said management teams have noted improving trends in Las Vegas. They are hopeful for EBITDA growth in 2026, if the leisure consumer improves with group bookings up mid-single digits and comps getting easier after a tough first quarter, which has been widely communicated to Wall Street.
“We continue to expect higher-end properties to outperform, including Wynn over MGM and Caesars,” Beynon said. “While we believe the long-term Vegas thesis remains intact, we are concerned that leisure and international softness will persist this year after three years of post-COVID growth, which is why we moved Vegas to our least favorite gaming sector in our 2026 Gaming Primer. Conversely, trends in U.S. regionals remain strong, and we expect this segment to continue to outperform Vegas.”
Beynon also weighed in on the Las Vegas locals market that saw gaming revenue increase 3% in February. Based on first-quarter data, he said Red Rock Resorts and Boyd Gaming are “positioned to outperform current first quarter current consensus for their respective retail segments.”
The Gaming Control Board has released a detailed report outlining gaming revenue in February, when the total statewide win was $1.23 billion, an increase of $18.3 million or 1.5% over February 2025.
Nevada sportsbooks won $35.4 million, down 14.4% or $5.9 million compared to February 2025 on a hold percentage of 6.1% versus 6.8% last year. Sportsbook wagers totaled $579.6 million, down 4.1% or $24.7 million compared to last February when $604.3 million was wagered statewide. Mobile wagers totaled $412.8 million, up 4.1% or $16.2 million, and accounted for 71.2% of all wagers, according to Shelley Newell, a senior economic analyst for the Gaming Control Board who compiled the data.
On the Las Vegas Strip, the 1% year-over-year gain brought in an extra $6 million in gaming revenue.
The Strip’s games win of $313.3 million increased 1.6% or $5 million and drop totaled $2.2 billion and increased 2.1% or $44.3 million. Games hold percentage was 14.4% versus 14.5% last year. Baccarat win on the Strip totaled $119.9 million and was up $32.4 million or 37%. Volume totaled $818.2 million and is up 17.1% or $119.3 million. Hold was 14.7% versus 12.5%, Newell said.
The Strip’s slot win totaled $383 million and increased 0.3% or $936,000, and coin-in of $5 billion was up $278.8 million or 5.9%. Slot win percentage was 7.60% versus 8.03% last year, Newell said.
In downtown Las Vegas, total win of $69.8 million decreased 4.2% ($3 million). February 2025 was down 4.9% versus February 2024. Slot win totaled $46.9 million and decreased 2.9% ($1.4 million). Slot coin-in was up 2.1% ($13 million).
Slot win percentage was 7.3% versus 7.6% last year. Game and table win totaled $22.9 million, down 6.7% ($1.6 million). Games drop decreased 8.3% or $20.2 million on a hold of 10.2% versus 10.1% last year, Newell said.
In the North Las Vegas area, total win of $24.2 million increased 4.7% ($1.1 million). February 2025 was down 2.7% versus February 2024. Slot win totaled $22 million and increased 4.9% or $1 million. Volumes were up 1.5% or $4.2 million. Hold was 7.7% versus 7.5 %, Newell said.
On the Boulder Strip, total win of $77.3 million was up 3.5% ($2.6 million). February 2025 was down 1.4% versus February 2024. Slot win was up 6.1% ($4 million). Slot coin-in was up 2.5% ($27 million). Slot hold was 6.3% versus 6.09%. Game and table win totaled $7.8 million down 14.4% ($1.3 million). Games volume up 8.1% ($4.5 million). Hold was 13.02% versus 16.44%, Newell said.
In the balance of Clark County, total win of $148 million was up 2.9% ($4.1 million). February 2025 was up 1% versus February 2024. Game and table win totaled $32 million, up 7.1% ($2.1 million). Games volume was down 2.4% ($5.6 million). Hold was 13.80% versus 12.58%. Slot win totaled $116.1 million and was up 1.8% or $2 million. Volumes were up 1.3% or $24.2 million. Hold was 6.28% versus 6.26%, Newell said.
In Mesquite, total win of $17.4 million was up 5.2% ($853,000). February 2025 was up 2.3% versus February 2024. Slot win was up 4.6% ($680,000). Slot coin-in was up 1.8% ($4 million). Hold was 6.9% versus 6.8%, Newell said.
In Laughlin, total win of $38.5 million was down 8.8% ($3.7 million). February 2025 was up 0.4% versus February 2024. Slot win was down 8.8% ($3.4 million). Slot coin-in was up 0.5% ($2.4 million). Hold was 7.6% versus 8.3%, Newell said.
Washoe County’s total win of $84.2 million increased 7.1% ($5.6 million). February 2025 was down 5.1% versus February 2024. Slot win increased 7.3% ($4.9 million). Slot coin-in totaled $1.2 billion and was up 1.5% ($18.8 million) versus February 2025. Hold was 5.8% versus 5.5% last year. Game and table win totaled $12.1 million, up 6.2% ($707,000). Games volume was down 7.5% ($6.3 million). Hold was 15.69% versus 13.66%. Sportsbooks were up 67.5%. Volumes were up 0.9% or $220,000 on a hold% of 6.6% versus 4.0% last year, Newell said.
In Reno, total win of $60.6 million increased 7.7% ($4.3 million). February 2025 was down 6.5% versus February 2024. Slot win was up 7.4% or $3.4 million. Volumes were up 1.7% ($14.4 million). The hold was 5.7% versus 5.4% last year, Newell said.
In Sparks, total win totaled $14.6 million and increased 8.3% ($1.1 million). February 2025 was down 2.6% versus February 2024. Slot win totaled $13.9 million and increased 8.8% ($1.1 million). Coin-in increased 0.8% ($2 million). Hold was 5.61% versus 5.19% last year, Newell said.
In the Carson valley area, total win of $10.7 million increased 4.2% ($436,000). February 2025 was down 0.5% versus February 2024. Slot win up 3% ($298,000). Slot coin-in was down 1% ($1.6 million). Slot hold percentage was 6.3% versus 6.1%, Newell said.
South Lake Tahoe’s total win of $17.9 million increased 1.5% ($270,000). February 2025 was down 17.4% versus February 2024. Slot win increased 9.3% ($1.1 million). Volume was up 7.8% ($11.8 million). Hold was 7.9% versus 7.8%, Newell said.
Total win of $33.6 million increased 7.7% ($2.4 million) (February 2025 was down 7.5% versus February 2024. Slot win increased 9.1% ($2.4 million). Slot coin-in increased 11.6% ($52 million). Slot hold was 5.7% versus 5.9%, Newell said.
