A gaming analyst said despite the Las Vegas Strip showing a nearly 6% increase in gaming revenue in August, a new all-time high for the month, factors below the surface show a “slightly less positive outcome.”
Jordan Bender of Citizens attributed the gain to VIP revenue increasing 51% with baccarat hold of 18.5%.
“On a hold-adjusted basis, gaming revenue on the Strip would have declined 3% in the month,” Bender said. “That
said, slot revenue was flat with handle +2% year-over-year, but hold was negative 11 basis points, which was facing a comp well below the long-term average. Overall, gaming revenue (+6% for the third quarter to date) isn’t reflecting the summer visitation slowdown (-9% quarter to date) on the back of easy comps. We expect September data to show some of the softness with a more normal comp in our view.”
That summer slowdown appears to be moving into fall, with no bounceback coming from the low end, Bender said. Airline passenger volume, down 6% in August and July, appears to be telling “a slightly different narrative” that weaker international travel is the source of the decline
in visitation.
“Domestic passenger volume growth is underperforming international passengers,” Bender said. “Canadian volumes are still underperforming. We expect this trend to carry over into September and the well-understood uptick in the convention calendar should support visitation in the fourth quarter. We expect to learn more on the full impact of the summer and a broader sense of current trends during upcoming investor meetings at G2E in October.’’
Bender highlighted the Las Vegas locals gaming revenue that increased 3% year-over-year in August and is up 1% during the third quarter and 2% for the year.
“The locals market continues to be one of the best-performing areas of gaming,” Bender said. “The strength has been positive for Red Rock Resorts and Boyd Gaming.”
In his note, Barry Jonas with Truist Securities also noted that gaming revenue is up based on high table and baccarat hold offsetting softer handle for both. He said normalized gaming revenue fell 1% year-over-year and cited the 7% decline in visitation and revenue per room down 11% in August. Convention attendance fell 8%.
Summer visitation woes continue, but a November and fourth-quarter inflection is possible, Jonas said citing room rates.
Shelley Newell, a senior economic analyst with the Nevada Gaming Control Board, issued her notes on the gaming revenue performance in August.
Statewide gaming revenue is up 1.5% for the year with the Strip up 1%. All markets are up in 2025 in gaming win, with exception of North Shore Lake Tahoe.
When compared to August 2023, Nevada’s August 2024 gaming win decreased 3.8% with the Las Vegas Strip’s gaming win decreasing by 3.4%. August had a favorable calendar compared to August 2024 with one additional weekend day, Newell said.
Nevada sportsbooks won $42 million, up 68.1% or $17 million compared to August 2024 on a hold percentage of 9.2% versus 5.5% last year. Sportsbook wagers totaled $455.2 million, down 0.1% or $341,000 compared to last August, when $455.5 million was wagered statewide. Mobile wagers totaled $337.1 million up 7.6% or $23.8 million and accounted for 74.1% of all wagers
In Washoe County, sportsbooks were up 18.5%. Volumes were up 14.9% or $1.7 million on a hold percentage of 11.7% versus 4.8% last year.
On the Strip, games hold percentage was 16.3% versus 14.1% last year. Baccarat win totaled $114.4 million and was up $38.75 million or 51.1%. Volume totaled $619.6 million is down 14.2% or $102.1 million. Hold was 18.5% versus 10.5%.
The Strip’s slot win totaled $366.8 million and decreased 0.04% or $141,000, with a 1.5% or $80.7 million increase in coin-in. Slot win percentage was 6.9% versus 7% last year.
Total win of $63.2 million in downtown Las Vegas increased 8.4% ($4.9 million). For the year, total win is up 1.7%.
Downtown slot win totaled $37.2 million and decreased 3.% ($1.2 million). Slot coin-in was up 5.8% ($34.1 million). Slot win percentage was 6% versus 6.5% last year. Game and table win totaled $26 million, up 30.2% ($6 million). Games drop increased 9.7% or $20.1 million on a hold of 11.38% versus 9.58% last year.
In Reno, total win of $68.7 million increased 4.9% ($3.2 million). For the year, total win is up 4.1%. Slot win was up 0.7% or $377,000. Volumes up 6.3% ($68.6 million) on a hold of 4.66% versus 4.92% last year, Newell said.
In Sparks, August’s all-time high in win totaled $18.4 million and increased 7.9% ($1.3 million). For the year, total win is up 2%.
Slot win in Sparks totaled $17.2 million and increased 6.5% ($1 million). Coin-in increased 4.1% ($11.7 million). Hold was 5.8% versus 5.6% last year.
In South Lake Tahoe, total win of $26.8 million increased 0.5% ($145,000). For the year, total win is up 0.63%.
Slot win decreased 7.6% ($1.6 million). Volume was up 1.8% ($4.7 million). Hold was 9.8% versus 8%, Newell said.
