Monarch Casinos & Resorts beat Wall Street expectations for the first quarter of 2026 by double digits. Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas felt the outperformance “could be a positive read for regional operators” elsewhere.
Management attributed the earnings beat in part to bad weather for skiing in Nevada and Colorado. This translated into what Jonas called “good casino weather.”
Delivering $48.9 million in cash flow, Monarch overshot Wall Street expectations by 12 percent. It also exceeded revenue projections by five percent, delivering $136.5 million.
Jefferies Equity Research analyst David Katz was also impressed. He wrote that expansion “remains a key potential catalyst, particularly given the company’s evident operating momentum.”
Monarch executives attributed their success in part to room renovations at Atlantis in Reno that were completed in the second quarter of 2025. The revamped rooms supported room rates that were 20 percent to 25 percent higher. Management also “noted favorable population trends driving market growth, particularly from people leaving California,” according to Jonas.
The Truist analyst, turning to Colorado, said Monarch “also continued to gain market share at Black Hawk as it has gotten better at attracting high-value customers, who are either new or infrequent visitors.”
Monarch execs professed themselves to be unconcerned about the promotional climate in Colorado. They cited the quality of their product and a lack of competition as the reasons why.
Like Reno, Black Hawk “also benefited from dry weather/ski conditions and technology deployment,” according to Jonas. He observed that executives said they weren’t seeing any impact from high gas prices, but that their high-end customer base was well-insulated from such concerns.
On the subject of asset purchases or mergers, Monarch executives said they would be willing to take the company’s long-term debt (presently nonexistent) up to four or even five times cash flow, but pay it down speedily. They added that they were looking at assets outside gaming, including non-casino hospitality properties.
Jonas continued, “Guidelines for a transaction remain the same, as Monarch will not enter a market with igaming legalized and minimal population growth. In the meantime, we expect more buybacks and/or another special dividend if nothing materializes.”
Following a first quarter that was light on capex costs ($7.6 million), Monarch leadership projected as much as $35 million in capex to come, “reflecting continued investment across the portfolio,” as Katz put it. Management also “continues to believe there remain incremental growth and cost-optimization opportunities within the existing portfolio.”
Priorities looking forward included improving midweek occupancy at Monarch’s resorts, further cross-marketing of its two properties, and reduction of costs via technological advances. Katz increased his projections for Monarch in 2026 to $593.2 million in revenue and $213.5 million of cash flow. For 2027, Katz projected revenue of $608.5 million and cash flow on the order of $220.2 million, raises for both of them.
