Citing a big trade show and price adjustments by casinos, the head of the Las Vegas tourism agency indicated that first-quarter visitation and room revenue will be “up meaningfully” over the first quarter of 2025.
Steve Hill, CEO of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, made the comments Thursday when he spoke to the city’s home-building industry. That would be good news for Las Vegas, which has been fighting the perception that it’s overpriced and that consumers no longer desire to visit the city.
“In the first quarter, we’re seeing a pretty big difference between this year and last year at this time,” Hill said. “The resorts are capitalizing on what’s strong and responding to what has been weak. The all-in deals and sales are focused on driving the consumer and making it easier for them to make the choice to come. As long as the macroeconomic environment remains relatively stable and starts to improve, we will improve with it.”
The LVCVA will release its statistics this week. Hill didn’t provide any details, but gave some clues of what’s to come. After visitation dropped nearly 8% in 2025, February saw the first year-over-year increase, 2.1%, in more than a year. Occupancy rose 1.2% and revenue per room rose 5.3.% in February.
“The first quarter of 2026 is going to be up meaningfully from the first quarter of 2025,” Hill said. “Some of that you saw in February. January was basically flat from the prior year and March is going to be a very good month.”
Hill said one of the reasons for the increase is the CONEXPO construction trade show in early March that attracted a reported 140,000-plus. The show comes to Las Vegas every three years.
“CONEXPO exhibits the power of big trade shows that come to Las Vegas,” Hill said. “Most of the others here that are that size come every year. You take them for granted, so you don’t know what it’s like when they’re not here.” CONEXPO is typically worth 9% in revenue per room in March across the entire hotel line, Hill said.
“It’s a remarkable statistic. RevPar growth in March will be higher than that, it will make the first quarter stand out, and it changes the narrative about Las Vegas. We had nine pretty tough months in 2025, since the downturn didn’t really start until the second quarter. The third quarter was the worst quarter and the numbers weren’t as far down in the fourth quarter. This first quarter is going to be much better.”
The drop in visitation was mostly from those lower on the income stream who are more concerned about their jobs and expenses, Hill said of the decline in 2025. That impacted mid-tier properties like Luxor, Excalibur, Flamingo, Rio and STRAT.
“We’re seeing real strength in the top end of the market, more and more higher incomers. We see the K-shaped economy in Las Vegas playing out. The proportion of higher-income earners is changing pretty dramatically. The recovery from a financial standpoint will happen more quickly than the recovery in just counting visitors.”
The business model in the past was different than today, Hill said. Gaming win was a much bigger proportion of revenue, which was close to two-thirds. Today, it’s about one-third.
“A lot of that comes from room rates and room sales. The mantra used to be to fill the room, even if you have to give it away. Just get them here to gamble. That’s not the business model as much as it used to be. Now, the destination is willing to give up some occupancy to maximize revenue, which has worked exceptionally well.
“We led the nation in revenue per available room growth from 2019 to 2024,” Hill said. “We were 10% higher than any other city in the country. We gave some of that back in 2025. You can read that we overdid it in 2024, but our customers were willing to pay for it. We charged it and they came. As the economy started to shift, we had to adjust and we’re starting to see that play out in the first quarter.”
Hill is concerned about elevated fuel prices increasing the costs of flights and driving in.
“They feel that,” Hill said. “Jet fuel has increased more than 100% in the last month and you’re starting to see the effect of that on ticket prices. It makes long-haul flights, particularly international flights midweek, vulnerable. We may see some results from that. The fuel price issue is probably temporary and gets fixed and back to normal, but there could be some bumps along the way. Also, consumer sentiment at an all-time low, with folks concerned about their financial situation.”
Hill said Las Vegas has a lot going for it and pointed to the Super Bowl recently being awarded to the city in 2029 after having it in 2024. The city continues to attract trade shows and musical artists and is getting the A’s baseball team in 2028.
“Just ask Raiders owner Mark Davis. Nine years ago, the Raiders were valued at $1 billion. A month ago, they were at $10 billion. You move to Las Vegas and you get to hang a zero on your net worth. That’s a pretty good deal. The other leagues see that. That’s why the A’s are coming. The business model for them works here. The NBA wants to be here, because of what they see happening to these other teams, leagues, and events. That’s to the benefit of Las Vegas going forward.”
Las Vegas continues to add to its brand, Hill said. People notice a 700-foot guitar at the Hard Rock Las Vegas under construction and the building of a baseball stadium.
“It’s not only adding 4,000 rooms back (at the former Mirage site), but it sends a spectacular message across the globe,” Hill said. “People around the globe pay attention to Las Vegas.”
Hill said the construction of the $2 billion A’s stadium at the former Tropicana Las Vegas site on the Strip will provide a boost to the calendar from spring to early fall and now provide two large venues, along with Allegiant Stadium, to book events.
“It’s tough to book events at Allegiant Stadium from September through January, because the NFL schedule for this year is not out yet,” Hill said. “You can’t start booking events until that schedule comes out (in a few weeks). With the ballpark, we can schedule events around the calendar and that will elevate the number of events.”
Hill gave an update on the Las Vegas Loop, the underground transportation system that takes visitors from the Convention Center to hotels. The system has 11 miles built so far and is expected to run from Harry Reid Airport, down Las Vegas Boulevard, and to downtown. There are 104 stations identified.
“This makes a huge difference whether you’re using it or not,” Hill said. “It will take people off the streets and incorporate the monorail. We’ll take the track off, put a pre-cast two-lane road on top, incorporate it into the Boring Company system, and use the existing Monorail stations. When you get to the MGM station, we’ll tie it into the parking garage and use it as part of a station with ramps to get in and out of it.”
