An economist at the University of Nevada Las Vegas expressed concern about Las Vegas gaming and tourism for the rest of the year and the start of 2026.
Stephen Miller and the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) released a mid-year report this week, discussing the year-to-date decline in visitation (6.5%) and gaming revenue (1.1%) on the Strip. The report noted that the national economy faces a slowdown and uncertainty in the next six to 18 months over tariffs and the business climate that could exacerbate both.
CBER’s most recent Tourism Index for Southern Nevada declined 2.1 percent month over month and 2.2 percent year over year.
“The trend has been downward since February 2024 when Las Vegas hosted the Super Bowl,” Miller said.
Tourism across the U.S. has softened in recent months, with international arrivals projected to fall 9% this year and foreign-visitor spending expected to drop by $8.5 billion, Miller said.
Las Vegas is no exception. The city welcomed 3.4 million visitors in May, a 6.5% year-over-year decline despite a strong month for conventions, which drew more than 511,000 attendees, up 10.7 percent.
Still, Miller said the business-travel boost wasn’t enough to offset the broader decline, driven by economic uncertainty and shifting travel habits. Hotel occupancy for Las Vegas in May 2025 fell to 83%, down more than three points. Strip occupancy dropped 3.2 points to 85.3%, while downtown declined more sharply to 74.8%, a 4.2 point drop, Miller said in citing statistics from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA).
“The LVCVA would say the number of heads are down, but the spending per head is up,” Miller said. “Visitors are spending more when they’re here.”
Revenue per available room declined 5.7% and gaming revenue fell 4.5%, led by an 11.4% drop downtown and 3.9% on the Strip. Analysts point to tighter visitor budgets, shorter booking windows, and rising travel costs as key contributors, particularly among mid-tier travelers, Miller said.
Air travel mirrored a similar downward trend, Miller said. Just under five million passengers moved through Harry Reid International Airport in May 2025, a 3.9% decline year-over-year. International traffic dropped 8.7%, reflecting ongoing softness in overseas visitation.
In 2024, over five million international visitors accounted for 12% of Las Vegas tourism, with Canadians making up 28.3%, the largest share. Analysts say many Canadian travelers opt for alternative destinations amid concerns about affordability, currency values, and broader geopolitical tensions, Miller said.
CBER estimates that Canadian tourism alone contributed $6.2 billion in total economic output and supported over 43,000 jobs in southern Nevada last year, underscoring the high stakes of a continued international pullback.
“It’s fair to say our Canadian visitors are not very happy with us,” Miller said. “They cut their flights in from Canada dramatically. It’s not a huge portion of the visitor volume, but it’s still a chunk.”
To help counter the slump, resorts have been offering a lot of promotions, especially for local residents, but many lean into long-term bets, Miller said.
“Brightline West’s high-speed rail line, expected to open in 2028, will improve access from southern California,” Miller said. “The upcoming Hard Rock Hotel (in 2027) will add over 600 rooms to the Strip, while new attractions like the Hall of Excellence and F1-themed experiences may help broaden the city’s appeal. Meanwhile, Resorts World, the STRAT, and the Plaza are promoting discounted packages, while the LVCVA’s new ‘Locals Unlocked’ campaign offers exclusive deals to residents, part of a broader push to address growing concerns about the affordability of entertainment and hospitality.”
Miller said Nevada’s dominant industry also faces risk from the spending and tax bill signed into law by President Trump earlier this month. A last-minute addition to the legislation altered the tax code for gaming losses, reducing the allowable deduction from 100 percent to 90 percent. Lawmakers have introduced a bill to rescind the provision.
“Though seemingly minor, this change could discourage high-volume gamblers from spending as much, posing a threat to Las Vegas’s core economy,” Miller said.
