Visitation to United States regional casinos was down 5.4 percent in January, according to J.P. Morgan analyst Daniel Politzer. However, winnings are projected to be two percent higher. Those findings were part of a February 4 investor note.
In a parallel report, Jefferies Equity Research analyst David Katz also blamed recent weather. “Heightened competition remains the overarching risk for land‑based operators and the latest snow/ice could cause downward revisions to 1Q26 Street estimates,” he wrote. He also cited potential igaming legalization as a cause for operator concern.
Unlike Politzer, Katz forecast a three percent to five percent decline in regional gambling revenues. However, he continued to favor Boyd Gaming, Churchill Downs, and Station Casinos, citing strength in management and near-term catalysts in their favor.
With regard to igaming, Katz pointed to seemingly imminent legalization in Virginia, recent enactment in Maine, and bills advancing in the legislatures of Indiana and New York. “Implementation for [Virginia and Maine] is likely months away at the earliest, leading us to believe the 2026 impact on land-based incumbents is limited,” Katz noted. “Still, once launched, the outcome is definitively negative for brick-and-mortar properties.”
Leaving aside states that went live with igaming during the ravages of COVID, Katz said that terrestrial casinos tended to experience a 3.5 percent dip when online gambling was incepted. “We argue that further legalization is when, not if, which supports the view that operators should have a defined igaming strategy to support a long-term growth pipeline,” he contended.
With regard to harsh recent weather, Politzer observed with surprise that, given the severity of temperatures and amounts of snowfall, two percent January growth would be “a lot better than we were anticipating.” He continued by observing that January 2026 had an extra weekend day and was preceded by a “fairly challenging” January 25, making for a flat year-over-year comparison on an apples-to-apples basis.
Katz added that 12 states had been placed under federal-emergency declarations in January, including seven casino-enabled ones (Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Virginia, and West Virginia). Assuming that 40 percent of gambling occurs on weekends, 65 percent of normal visitation levels would translate into a 3.1 percent revenue decline.
Those areas facing the severest weather might be looking at casino foot traffic that was 35 percent of normal, Katz continued. That would mean a 5.7 percent downturn. For context, he added that New York, which was not placed under an emergency decree, had only a one percent uptick at its video-gambling properties.
But Katz was not without hope. Noting that gaming stocks were depressed seven percent, he added, “We still believe there are investible stories for firms that offer a clear growth pathway.” For instance, Boyd has two projects in train “and a relatively under-levered balance sheet that can be deployed for new opportunities or existing assets.”
Churchill Downs, for its part, was looking at an easy Kentucky Derby comparison, as well as the launch of electronic table games in the Bluegrass State. As for Station, exposed almost exclusively to Las Vegas local players, “where weather is not a factor, we favor the strategy, execution and growth that should compound over time.”
