Tourism numbers and gross gaming revenue out of Macau during the Golden Week holiday are proving “better than expected and modestly positive for the sector.” That’s according to Jefferies Equity Research analyst Anne Ling in a May 6 investor note.
Ling acknowledged macroeconomic worries and the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. She said the projections of five percent or less gambling-revenue growth in Macau compared favorably to the economic and diplomatic backdrop.
During Golden Week, gambling grosses spiked 12 percent, averaging $130 million per day. Mass-market play was up between 60 percent and 65 percent from April, while VIP action was said to be weaker, but gained 55 percent to 58 percent sequentially.
After Golden Week, Ling estimated, gambling revenue would run between $75.2 million and $81.5 million per day for a monthly tally of between $2.6 billion and $2.8 billion. That would be a nine percent increase from 2024.
In April, according to recently released figures from Macanese casino regulators, gambling houses grossed over $2.3 billion, a 1.7 percent improvement from 2024. However, it was a 4.1 percent sequential drop from March. Visitation to the enclave was well up from the previous Golden Week, jumping 40 percent year over year. Macau saw an average of 170,000 tourists per day. Official government estimates were for 634,000-700,000 visitors, not the 850,000 who arrived.
The tourism data meant that Golden Week of 2024 surpassed 2019’s by seven percent. It also exceeded governmental projections by 24 percent to 34 percent.
Despite a preponderance of day trippers, hotel occupancy stood at 90 percent for the first three days of the holiday. Forty percent of visitors were expected to stay one to two nights, with the remaining 60 percent making same-day trips.
Due to cost containment, MGM China had already beaten Wall Street’s expectations for first-quarter cash flow. SJM Holdings and Sands China delivered about as market-watchers expected.
“Concerns over volume levels from the current Golden Week, which are driven by the overall economy and prospective impact from the potential trade war,” wrote Ling. Nonetheless, she expected Sands to grow gambling revenue by six percent, MGM China by seven percent and Wynn by two percent.
