Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli issued a report today predicting a gradual slowdown in gaming revenues, as reflected in early data from Nevada, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio. Even though Santarelli does not expect August grosses to equal those of July (which set a record for the Las Vegas Strip), they should still be healthy. The one exception is Louisiana, where Santarelli predicts a 19 percent decline in August gross gaming revenues, which he blamed on the disruption caused by Hurricane Ida.
“While July GGR trends, helped in part by a favorable calendar that included two extra weekend days, were robust across all markets in terms of their rate of change relative to 2019, we expect August trends, as the calendar dynamic reverses, to show a deceleration,” Santarelli explained.
Santarelli was surprised by the July gaming win on the Strip, predicting a five percent increase. Then, casinos won 46.5 percent more than in 2019. For August, he ratcheted his initial projection for a 14 percent August increase up to 26 percent, despite expected volatility in high-end play. Though Las Vegas visitation was two percent lower than in August 2019, spend per visitor was 43.5 percent higher. He expects locals-casino to continue waxing, but at a slower pace: 6.5 percent.
Projected increases in the Midwest include seven percent in Missouri, 14 percent in Indiana, and 19 percent in Ohio. Players are also spending at a faster pace than before. Spend per visitor is 44 percent higher in Missouri, 43 percent in Ohio, and 33 percent greater in Louisiana. (Data for Indiana was not available.)
