Gaming analysts aren’t worried about Las Vegas’s big dip in gaming revenue and visitation in February. One analyst said the March numbers will be much improved.
Barry Jonas with Truist Securities said while Strip gaming revenue fell 14% year-over-year, the tough comparison of the city hosting the Super Bowl in February 2024 was the difference. The softer gaming revenue was also likely driven by a 52% decline in baccarat and 27% decline in table games, along with one less calendar day year-over-year.
“That said, Strip casino win excluding baccarat was down just 3% year-over-year,” Jonas said. “Locals performance was flat. February visitation was down 12%, along with Strip revenue per room/average daily rates down 29% and 26%. While we expected a softer February. Underlying Vegas trends remain mostly positive for now and we expect to see improvements in March.”
John DeCree, director of equity research at CBRE, said he met with several CEOs and CFOs last week about the state of gaming in the Las Vegas valley and what to expect for the rest of 2025. “The headline is that volatility p
persists.
“Overall, we came away content, but cautious, with the current state of U.S. gaming, notwithstanding recent macro headline volatility, tough first quarter comps in Las Vegas, and weak year-to-date trends in regional markets,” DeCree said.
One noteworthy topic that came up in several meetings was a potential silver lining amid U.S. government policy uncertainty, DeCree said. The discussions on eliminating federal income tax on tipped wages and Social Security payments “should be a decent tailwind for U.S. gaming and specifically Las Vegas locals, given the prevalence of tipped wages as a percentage of total income for service-industry employees.”
These policies, if enacted, would lead to an increase in disposable income and DeCree suspects that at least part of these savings would be spent, thus reinvested into the local economy.
Jonas said based on quarterly trends, they’ve trimmed their first-quarter EBITDA estimate for Boyd by 3%, with a stock-price target to $85 from $92.
Truist reported slot revenue on the Strip was flat year-over year, as handle fell 4%, though hold rose 36 basis points. Table-game revenue fell 27% year-over-year, with the drop down 25% and hold down 29 basis points.
Strip baccarat win of $88 million was down 52% year-over-year with weaker hold (12.5%, down 522 basis points) and drop 31% lower, Jonas said.
With operational slot/table units down 4% and 6%, win/unit/day was +8%/-19%, Jonas said.
Sports win of $24 million was down 2% year-over-year, with handle down 18%, partially offset by hold up 135 basis points.
For the locals market, slot revenue fell 1%, with handle down 3% and a win rate up 11 basis points. Table-game revenue rose 5% year-over-year, despite the drop down 9%, though the hold was up 174 basis points.
Plenty of events in Las Vegas in February helped visitation, according to Shelley Newell, senior economic analyst with the Gaming Control Board.
Mariah Carey returned to Dolby Live inside the Park MGM from February 1st through the 15th. T-Mobile Arena hosted PBC Boxing with the main event featuring a light heavyweight bout between David Benavidez and David Morrell Jr. Blake Shelton’s residency at the Colosseum inside Caesars Palace began on February 5th through the 15th. Janet Jackson performed at Resorts World Las Vegas for multiple shows beginning on February 5th through the15th. The Eagles residency at the MSG Sphere Arena continued from February 14th through the 22nd. Garth Brooks returned to the Colosseum inside Caesars Palace from February 21st through the 28th.
