Calling 2024 an “underperformance” year for the casino industry, Macquarie Equity Research analyst Chad Beynon said he was “cautiously optimistic” for 2025. He published his views in a June 2 investor note.
Beynon modeled $8.8 billion in estimated 2025 gambling revenue on the Las Vegas Strip, slightly ahead of 2024, though short of 2023’s $8.9 billion. For regional casinos, he forecast $42.3 billion, up from 2024’s $42 billion, rising to $43 billion in 2026.
A dramatic escalation was predicted for igaming. Beynon’s figures showed it going from $25.3 billion in 2024 to $30.4 billion this year, then $34.5 billion in 2026 in a North America alone.
The analyst projected a modest upward trend in Macau, which he showed going up to $28.4 billion last year to $28.8 million in 2025. For 2026, he modeled $30.8 billion.
Beynon conceded that through May, gaming is down six percent from 2024. However, he wrote, “While fundamentals have not improved, we do not think it worsened; and given recent commentary/data, we remain cautiously optimistic on fundamentals/stocks for the rest of the year.”
Wall Street’s consensus, he continued, was for five percent cash-flow improvement this year. He observed consumer behavior to be stable through May. Still, he noted that only four of the 16 companies he covered had raised their cash-flow guidance, which he blamed for the underperformance.
Although gambling revenues were up just one percent in the first quarter of the year, Beynon pointed to a 2.5 percent uptick in April. This, he said, suggested “upside surprises” in the second quarter and 2025 as a whole.
Las Vegas, he allowed, had been “anemic,” with revenue declining in four of the last five quarters, as represented by the tallies at Wynn Resorts, Caesars Entertainment, and MGM Resorts International. On top of that, visitation had fallen six percent.
“Despite this, management teams have noted GGR has slowed, but non-gaming continues to flourish,” Beynon countered. He pegged his cautious hopes on the completion of capex projects and a rising trajectory of convention business, saying that operators on the Las Vegas Strip expected cash-flow growth.
Despite slow March Madness wagering, online sports betting revenues were up 14 percent, while igaming receipts jumped 27 percent. Hold was seen to be tightening from 9.5 percent in April to 10.6 percent in May. Beynon also predicted a 10 percent handle increase through the balance of the year.
Macau’s May casino tally of $2.7 billion was described as “slightly ahead of expectations.” Although the Wall Street consensus is for two percent growth in the second quarter and 2025 overall, Beynon believed that the May numbers hinted at outperformance to come.
Beynon concluded with a few concerns, including Las Vegas’s downward trends in casino revenue and visitation, as well as slowing international travel to the U.S. He also cited less OSB handle, little merger-and-acquisition activity, and higher igaming taxes. Lastly, he checked off the lack of new igaming markets, Penn Entertainment’s ongoing battle with activist shareholders over the fate of ESPN Bet, and the effect of tariffs on Macau as items to be watched.
