Regional casinos are stable and “commentary on the summer downside in Las Vegas is less than feared.” That’s how Jefferies Equity Research analyst David Katz summarized the Jefferies Nantucket Consumer Conference, held July 17 and 18 in Massachusetts. His findings were part of a June 20 investor note.
May’s gross gaming revenues, Katz wrote, “benefited from an extra Saturday, but also seemed to reflect otherwise fundamental drivers.” However, operators refrained from calling the high-single-digit upturn a trend, citing economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Discussing its growth opportunities, Katz continued to regard Churchill Downs most highly and deemed MGM Resorts International, Penn Entertainment, and Caesar Entertainment to have positive prospects.
In the manufacturing sector, Katz singled out Light & Wonder, which “projects confidence in product and business momentum, supported by solid GGR trends and the addition of [Grover Gaming’s] growth.” He noted that litigation with Aristocrat Leisure was still active, but that its resolution would be “likely benign.”
Rush Street Interactive reported strong Latin American trends in igaming, with a 19 percent value-added tax in Colombia coming off in December at the latest, easing revenue comparisons in 2026. Igaming practitioners were also optimistic about the chances of legalization in Illinois, New York, and Ohio in the next year. DraftKings in particular opined that broader igaming legitimacy was “inevitable on stretched budgets and rising unregulated adjacencies.”
BothMGM and Caesars were said to be bullish on igaming, with BetMGM trending better than expected. Caesars indicated that handle and hold percentages were looking good for the second quarter.
Globally, Sportradar expected growth in sports betting that would be as high as the low double digits, good for its in-play-wagering offerings. DraftKings added that more than 50 percent of its handle came from such proposition bets.
“Prediction markets are a complex discussion point,” Katz noted, “with DraftKings incrementally more bullish on the opportunity, while noting the myriad issues of legality, cost and execution.”
Returning to the subject of Churchill Downs, Katz reported that it remains confident in its District of Columbia-area The Rose casino, believing it will become the area’s go-to gambling venue. Also, despite a disappointing Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs was expecting a stronger 2026 run, with a new NBC TV contract providing a tailwind.
Within igaming, Caesars “is in a comfortable place with their product and expects share in the next legalized states to be higher than its current markets.” In terrestrial gambling, the company reported diminished Las Vegas occupancy, but still voiced confidence that 2025 would be a record year for group business.
Having banished some sharps from Caesars Sportsbook, Caesars executives anticipated that handle would start growing again. Although the company remained firmly behind its New York City casino bid, Katz deemed it a longshot. License awards are expected by the end of the year.
Middle-market and low-end customers were a source of summertime weakness for MGM, but “bookings for the fall and ’26 look strong.” Two regional MGM casinos had booked record winnings in May.
By contrast, Penn execs reported stable low-end spending patterns. Although ESPN Bet was still not integrated with the network’s direct-to-customer product, Penn expected that to be consummated by the start of NFL play. ESPN was said to be more focused on customer engagement rather than market share.
Wynn Resorts reported progress on its Al Marjan resort in the United Arab Emirates, with 51 of 72 planned floors “complete with an estimated $750M left of spend to go, split between 2025/26. The Mayfair London property is helping develop a starting database for potential Al Marjan players. The team currently running the London property will be running Al Marjan when it opens.”
Executives of Wynn reaffirmed their decision to get out of the digital sphere, believing that (with only five casinos worldwide), Wynn had few cross-sell chances between brick-and-mortar and digital casinos. As for online sports betting, it was dismissed as “a commoditized product with limited customer stickiness.”
