In the grand world of international gaming resorts, the latest target for hungry investors is Thailand. Last week, the Thai cabinet passed a draft bill that allows casinos within entertainment complexes. Four locations are potential hosts for the casino/entertainment resorts: Chiang Mai, Phuket, Chonburi, and Bangkok. The Thai government is hoping to generate US$1 billion annually in gaming tax. It also expects the projected projects to generate billions in investment and to hire thousands of Thais.
The bill now moves to the lower house, then the upper house, and finally to the king for his signature. The cabinet expects significant changes in the bill during the process. Earlier in the year, consultations took place that revealed that 80 percent of Thais approve of casino legislation. Prospects appear bright.
Thailand is becoming one of the world’s leading tourist destinations. In the last 10 years, the number of visitors has tripled from 11 million to 35 million. Of those, 23 percent are from Western countries, including Russia, Great Britian, Australia, and the United States. China is responsible for 10 percent of the tourists to kingdom. With 1.4 billion people, China is an important source of visitors.
But China may complicate, rather than enhance, the issue. News sources have reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping has shown a great deal of interest in Thailand’s plans for resorts with casinos. It is being reported that Xi has asked the Thai prime minister about casinos several times and at least once expressed the opinion that Thailand could achieve success in attracting foreign tourists with casinos, though further saying that casinos brink the risk of crime, corruption, and addiction.
Besides the Chinese government’s attitude, another outside group needs to be considered, the investors. When the political discussion in Thailand began, the top gaming companies followed enthusiastically and with good reason. Not only has Thailand been growing rapidly as a tourist destination, but the country also has a population of 71 million people; combined, that means over 100 million people a year as potential customers for casino-resorts.
Thailand has several models it can use to project the number of casino customers, gross revenue, and potential tax revenue. The closest and most comparable are Singapore and Macau. In 2024, Macau had 35 million visitors and $28 billion in gross gaming revenue. Macau may be of limited value as a model, due to its single-source dilemma. The governments of both Macau and China want more international tourists, but currently 70 percent of Macau’s tourists are from Mainland China. It would be unreasonable to expect 25 million Chinese tourists in Thailand with or without casinos.
Singapore is a more apt model. Singapore has 5.9 million citizens and draws 16.5 million visitors. Singapore has two casinos that generated over $4 billion in gross gaming revenue in 2024. In 2023, China provided 3.6 million visitors to Singapore, Indonesia 3.1 million, India 1.4 million, Malaysia 1.2 million, and Australia 1.1 million. Those are achievable numbers, providing that the casino-resorts are up to the standards of other jurisdictions. For example, the Marina Bay Sands in Singapore cost nearly $7 billion to build and the Sands is currently investing another $3.3 billion. That sets a pretty high bar.
Two other models to consider are Japan and the United Arab Emirates. Each has a significant tourism industry and casino-resorts plan. Japan has 124.5 million people and draws 36.9 million tourists. One casino is being built, MGM Osaka, at an estimated cost of $9.3 billion; it’s expected to open in 2030. The United Arab Emirates is getting 18.7 million foreign visitors and has 10.4 million citizens. Wynn Resorts is investing $5.1 billion in a project expected to open in 2027. And at this point, the Macau casinos also have at least $5 billion in investment.
For any company to invest that much, there has to be the expectation of a return. Several companies, including the Las Vegas Sands, had plans to invest $10 billion in Japan, but dropped out as the conditions became too restrictive to get a return on investments of that size. That same situation is threatening the Thailand initiative.
The current bill has a number of conditions and restrictions that could impact the country’s ability to attract quality investments. The most significant is the proposal requiring any Thai who wishes to enter the casino to have $1.5 million in the bank, a deposit that must be at least six months old. A survey of deposits in Thailand that meet the criterion produced 10,000 potential customers out of a population of 70 million. That is not enough to justify a multi-billion-dollar investment.
It is much too soon to make any predictions. The only conditions that count are those that make it through the two houses and to the king’s desk. Gaming companies are being cautious. Japan taught everyone a lesson. When the first initiatives surfaced there, most of the major gaming companies in the world took notice. They drew up plans, rented offices, and hired employees, architects, and lobbyists. Years later, they had all abandoned the plans, moved out of the offices, and fired the employees and lobbyists. MGM is the only contender making it to the finish line and that is only after 10 years.
It appears that no one wants to repeat that mistake. Gaming companies are willing to sit and wait. They are waiting for the answer to a simple question: “Will Thailand be like Singapore and the UAE or like Japan?”
