What’s not to love about MGM National Harbor? Traffic

There are plenty of reasons to be excited and bullish toward the opening of MGM’s National Harbor property later this week outside Washington, DC, but the impact of the property on the region’s already acute transit problems is not among them.

The $1.4 billion casino resort on the Potomac River is the classiest entertainment destination to ever emerge in this section of the mid-Atlantic region, an area that had been largely void of gaming for years until casinos began popping up around Washington’s periphery a half-decade ago.

The property also gives MGM deep penetration into the nation’s sixth largest, and arguably its wealthiest, metropolitan area. Four of the country’s five richest counties – as measured by median household income – are located within a 45-60 minute drive of National Harbor.

But the property’s reception in Washington so far has been an equal mix of curiosity and concern for what it means for the region’s current road rage-inducing traffic problems.

These concerns are not without merit. The region’s residents spend an average of 82 hours each year stuck in traffic each year – the highest rate in the country, according to a study by Texas A&M University.

From this perspective, National Harbor’s location directly off of Interstate 495 – known as Capital Beltway – is both a blessing and curse. The benefits of easy access to the property will be offset by the delays and bottlenecks created.

Upwards of 9,000 vehicles are expected to converge on the site for the first 24 hours of operation alone. Once the ramp up is complete, the property is expected to receive as many as 25,000 visitors each day, and total traffic to the National Harbor district – which also includes a large hotel and convention center adjacent to MGM – is expected to double.

The property also sits at the convergence of several heavily-travelled arteries and is flanked by countless on-ramps, off-ramps, detours and loop-arounds that will leave your GPS begging for mercy. Factor in a holiday shopping rush at the nearby outlet mall and the traffic situation – even in a part of the city where noon-hour traffic jams are accepted as commonplace, could get ugly real quick.

“The casino has a pretty slick traffic plan once you get on the property, but off-site, it’s going to be nothing more than a nightmare,” one Prince George’s County council member told the Washington Post last week.

The National Harbor area is also largely isolated from the Washington public transit system, meaning that more people will be arriving by car. While several new bus routes have been added to bring guests to the property, there is no direct access by train. Visitors will also have the option of taking a water taxi from Alexandria on the other side of the Potomac River.

As an anecdotal taste, I experienced a 10 minute backup on the road leading up to the property on Tuesday morning as I drove in for the media preview. Though the jam was due to construction crews putting finishing some touches on the facility, it wasn’t difficult to envision how this could quickly turn into a quagmire.

Many commenters in below the above-referenced Post story voiced similar concerns.

“This won’t just be gridlock… this will be Los Angeles-level doom,” predicted one pessimist.

“I’m glad I’m just on the other side of the Potomac,” said another.

While Prince George’s county has pledged to offer additional resources and personnel to help manage traffic flow during the opening, there is a sentiment that the county’s plan to build up the area’s infrastructure and mitigate traffic is inadequate.

“It’s clear that [Prince George’s County] leaders were out of their league when dealing with negotiators from MGM,” opined one commenter, adding that he felt county officials “were unwilling to demand reasonable concessions regarding infrastructure support.”

MGM CEO Jim Murren fielded questions on the traffic question last Friday following a speech he gave at the National Press Club in Washington. He emphasized that he was well-acquainted with the concerns and stressed that it is in his fundamental interest to ensure that people can actually get to his billion dollar property.

But his answer, and the response I got when I posed the same question to Bill Boasberg – the property’s General Manager – was basically that MGM did everything within its control by widening roads and building up infrastructure on the property, and everything else is on Prince George’s County to figure out.

While it’s true that MGM can’t be blamed or expected to fix the region’s longstanding traffic woes, that’s hardly a reassuring response to area residents who already spend far too many of their waking hours stuck in traffic.
We’ll known for sure at 11pm on Thursday night when the site officially opens.

Unless the doomsday predictions fail to come materialize, visitors may want to plan on arriving via water taxi.