Churchill Downs bright spot amid “underwhelming” trends, analysts say

Wednesday, September 17, 2025 11:49 AM
  • David McKee, CDC Gaming

Jefferies Equity Research analysts called Churchill Downs “a bright spot amidst underwhelming land-based gaming data.” Their verdict was conveyed in a September 17 investor note. The gaming company stood out against a background of mostly downward trends in consumer behavior, according to Jefferies’s staff. Even igaming was seen heading lower in year-over-year comparisons.

Another category that is suffering is lodging foot traffic, which trended downward across all major chains. An area that saw a slight bump was leisure-related internet traffic, while app downloads were also on the rise.

Trends varied across four six categories of lodging, with luxury-rated rooms troughing 5.4 percent in August, while economy lodgings were up 1.9 percent after declining in June and July. Upper-midscale and midscale rooms were nearly flat in August following modest June and July dips.

“In addition to foot traffic, U.S. web traffic and social-media momentum declined, while app downloads improved,” Jefferies reported.

Casino foot traffic slumped for the third consecutive month, down 5.6 percent in August. Churchill Downs outperformed the sector with a 3.6 percent improvement, while Penn Entertainment, which opened a new casino in Joliet on August 11, was up 0.4 percent. “Notably, these were the only two operators we track that delivered YoY growth in foot traffic for the month and the only two that also [compared] positive last month,” said Jefferies staffers.

Gaming-site visits fell 4.5 percent in August, which was actually the second-strongest month of 2025, following a July that saw a 3.2 spike in gaming-related web traffic. Churchill Downs experienced 53.6 percent more web traffic, while Boyd Gaming shot up 37.9 percent. Those gains were offset by plunges at Golden Gaming, which was down 54.3 percent, and Monarch Casinos & Resorts, which witnessed a 30.9 percent falloff online.

Igaming downloads provided little relief. They plunged 10.8 percent. Boyd downloads catapulted 73.8 percent while those for Bet365 jumped 23.3 percent. But DraftKings downloads plummeted 39.2 percent, while MGM Resorts International’s fell 28.7 percent.

A positive sign for ESPN Bet was a web-visit increase of 23.6 percent. Despite a slippage in downloads, MGM experienced higher web traffic to the tune of 18.3 percent. Visitors fled Fanatics, however, as it plunged 73.3 percent in visitation.