Foot traffic in United States casinos plunged 9.9 percent in July, falling 19.9 percent below the comparable point in 2019. That was the conclusion of an August 12 investor note by Jefferies Equity Research analyst David Katz.
The Jefferies analyst reported that July visitation was the second-lowest of the year, “representing a slight reversal of the stabilizing trends we’ve seen the last few months.” February foot traffic plunged 14.3 percent for the weakest month of the year.
The news was somewhat ameliorated by the disclosure that spend per visitor rose. The July calendar was neutral with 2024’s, except for the Fourth of July being on a weekend day (Friday) rather than a Thursday.
Casino management teams had told Katz that July trends “were OK,” causing him to conclude that the month would prove to be an outlier where visitation was concerned. He wrote, “We anticipate trends will continue to stabilize in 2025, as comparisons have started to ease vs. prior-year levels.”
Katz also cited new-casino debuts as harbingers of revenue growth. Specifically, he pointed to the new Hollywood Joliet, which Penn Entertainment opened August 11, and to Churchill Downs’s The Rose Gaming Resort in Virginia.
“Our take is that the monthly performance reflects the volatile path toward the normalization of traffic trends post-COVID, as well as the heightened competition and renovations in specific locations,” Katz opined. He cited Ohio, where foot traffic was down 1.5 percent from 2024, but only 0.4 percent from 2019.
Other data varied widely. Pennsylvania casinos saw 0.6 percent fewer customers than in 2024, but 14.2 percent more than in pre-COVID 2019. Massachusetts was down two percent from last year, but 25.9 percent from six years previous, “likely impacted by increased competition from New Hampshire.”
Atlantic City sustained a 4.9 percent visitation drop in July, but was 13.2 percent off 2019’s pace. Illinois casinos dipped 0.9 percent year over year and were 14.4 percent down from 2019 numbers.
In Detroit, casinos took an 8.8 percent hit versus July 2024, while being 31.8 percent distant from pre-COVID volumes. Penn, Katz said, “spoke to anticipated disruption on its 2Q25 earnings call from the ongoing construction and revitalization of the downtown business corridor adjacent to its Hollywood Greektown Casino.”
Comparisons to 2019 weren’t made in Kentucky, due to a spate of new casino openings, but foot traffic in July was down 1.3 percent from 2024. By contrast, Black Hawk, Colorado, saw casino attendance jump nine percent, although Katz discounted this somewhat, citing the potency of Monarch Casinos & Resorts’s new property, “which continues to ramp and take share.
“We continue to believe regional gaming is better positioned for growth in the near term compared to Las Vegas, where expectations for the Strip are confirmed to be low until the group slate accelerates” late in the year, penned Katz.
Returning to regional casinos, he expected Penn to deliver upside from new and improved properties in the Midwest. Of Caesars Entertainment, “We continue to argue that the company has the regional assets to benefit from the expected uptrend, but think execution needs to be demonstrated to move shares higher.”
As for Churchill Downs, Katz hoped for improved performance from The Rose. He also took a wait-and-see stance on a newly acquired casino in Salem, New Hampshire.
