The Macau government’s recent estimate that industry GGR will reach MOP$240 billion (US$30 billion) in 2025 could be wildly understated given its track record of underestimating gaming revenues, according to Citigroup.
Releasing its deep dive into the Macau gaming market on Wednesday, Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said they expect GGR to climb 7% year-on-year to US$30.4 billion – and EBITDA by 13% to US$9 billion – in 2025, driven by visitation growth, the rollout of smart gaming tables and the rising popularity of new side bets.
While Citi’s estimates are not much more than government’s own forecast, the analysts suggest revenues could be considerably higher given the government’s track record of underestimating GGR. Specifically, they noted that the government has underestimated GGR in nine of the past 10 years (2011-2019 and 2023) by between 10% and 60%.
