Continuing uncertainty around the timing of any potential easing of mainland China’s zero-COVID policy has seen CBRE Equity Research downgrade its Macau EBITDA estimates for 2023, down from US$1.88 billion to US$1.45 billion.

In a Thursday note following publication of Las Vegas Sands’ 3Q22 financial results – which saw the company’s Macau subsidiary Sands China report a widened US$152 million EBITDA loss – analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh said they currently assume Macau will recover to 50% of pre-COVID levels next year but suspect that number will “more likely need to be revised downward than upward given China’s commitment to zero-COVID.”