Aristocrat Leisure’s online content “will take longer than forecasts to ramp-up,” Jefferies Equity Research analyst Kai Erman said in a 12 January investor note.
Long-term growth, Erman wrote, could be driven by online-lottery contracts. However, delays in deploying new content would “see a more marginal contribution to group growth” and return on investment.
Content-driven estimates, the analyst wrote, looked too elevated. He opined that Aristocrat was well below 2026-2027 estimates in that sphere. He did not expect an igaming earnings contribution of more than 15% to happen before 2027, although 61% growth has been projected for 2026.
Erman offered that Aristocrat “can carve out a ~10-15% market share position in the medium term, however our top-down analysis suggests a 15% market share may not be as fruitful as consensus assumes.” He added that online lotteries were carrying the freight “for now.”
