Travel restrictions from Mainland China and zero-COVID policy measures have sent Macau gaming revenue totals tumbling more than 53 percent compared to 2021.

The Macau government is offering signs that travel bans from five Mainland Chinese provinces could be loosened later this month or by early November. Still, one gaming analyst is not convinced the prospects for Las Vegas-based Macau casino operators are on the upswing.

“Our heart wants to say yes, but our mind tells us otherwise as we have been tricked so many times over the past two years,” Stifel Financial gaming analyst Steven Wieczynski told investors in a research note Sunday after Macau regulators said gaming revenue of $370 million in September was down almost 50 percent from a year ago.

Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts International operate casinos in Macau. For Sands, which sold its Strip properties in February for $6.25 billion, Marina Bay Sands in Singapore remains the company’s only casino operating without major restrictions.

“While visitation (and) spend trends have been encouraging during periods where the (Macau) market was stable, we still believe there won’t be any signs of a material recovery until sometime in mid-2023,” Wieczynski wrote.

Through September, Macau casinos have collected $4 billion in gaming revenue compared to $10.8 billion collected in 2021.

Macau’s gaming revenue hit a record high of $45 billion in 2013, but economic challenges in China caused declines in the market over the next few years. In pre-pandemic 2019, Macau casinos produced $36.6 billion in gaming revenue.

A year later, the pandemic sent Macau gaming revenue tumbling to $7.56 billion, its lowest figure in 14 years.

“At this point, until we see a material change in visitation and spending patterns and a clear indication visitation restrictions are gone, we believe the near-term outlook for Macau will remain murky at best,” Wieczynski wrote.