Feedback from Global Gaming Expo has augured potential market-share gains by Aristocrat Leisure. That was the take of Jefferies Equity Research analyst Kai Erman, in an October 20 investor note.
Erman also foresaw a return to prosperity for the Las Vegas Strip in the first quarter of 2026. This, he wrote, gives Aristocrat “strong land-based operating momentum and a resilient end-market backdrop.” He kept a Buy rating on the stock.
The analyst predicted 5,100 net installations for Aristocrat, driven by games House of the Dragon, Spooky Link, and Hyper Link. He also forecast daily fees per machine of $54.10, up from $53.80.
Jefferies’s research showed Aristocrat gaining strength in outright sales as 2025 moves to a close. “Dominant performance of Baron Portrait in particular should see Aristocrat outperform the broader market with declining replacement pools,” as gross gaming revenue rises by low single digits.
Market share in Australia and New Zealand was said to be sitting around 50 percent, and sequential improvement in Asia was predicted.
“We are yet to observe material product launches in Interactive but some positive early indications may point to future success; however, we expect minimal indication in 2H25 result,” Erman wrote, shifting gears. “Divisional management changes and strategic focus on leveraging land-based content into igaming may see acceleration of igaming execution, although we expect this is some time away.”
Erman added that he anticipated robust lottery performances. License opportunities in Michigan and Massachusetts were also pointed to as potential catalysts.
In the social-casino sphere, mid-single-digit growth was foreseen, driven by Product Madness, as Aristocrat’s direct-to-customer products burgeoned. Erman thought Aristocrat would have successes similar to those experienced in social casinos by Light & Wonder, as the two rival companies were outperforming the rest of the market.
Erman concluded by lauding the “strong competitive dynamics” of the United States casino industry. He felt the industry was resilient, paving the way for Aristocrat to gain share. Outside of Light & Wonder, sizable competition was seen to be limited “and market share performance should remain robust.”
