Las Vegas tourism will bounce back, as it always does following a lull, but it may take the reopening of the former Mirage in late 2027 and the debut of the A’s baseball stadium in 2028 to fully recover, Wall Street gaming analysts believe.
Barry Jonas, managing director with Truist Securities, and John DeCree, director of equity research at CBRE, appeared before the Economic Club of Las Vegas on Thursday to talk about the state of the city’s gaming industry. Las Vegas remains an attraction, with sports and entertainment at venues like Allegiant Stadium and Sphere, and casino operators continue to make investments to attract visitors, the duo said.
Jonas said last summer, the Strip was seeing softer demand, attributed to a drop in international visitation, especially from Canada, and the perception Las Vegas wasn’t a value. Casino operators are addressing that now, and people will hear more about that in the coming months.
“In an inflationary environment and concerns over a recession and tariffs, it’s easier to put off a Vegas trip and spend a little more time at home,” Jonas said. “We’re coming into summer and the real test will be can we return to growth. The event calendar is very strong this year and records are being projected across the board. I’m not modeling growth for the large Vegas operators, which shows that the leisure segment is still hurting to a certain degree, largely at the lower end. The high end – Wynn, Bellagio Caesars Palace – you are not hearing about struggles there. It’s the low end. The comps will ease and some initiatives by these companies will address some issues. But what about the war in Iran and rising gas prices? You can see a pathway to returning to growth, but not without risks.”
DeCree said this year’s Visitor Profile Survey from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority showed that in 2025, less than 10% of visitation was from first-timers. It was 15% the year before and it’s typically in the high teens or 20s.
“A lot of first-time visitors typically spend more their first time in Las Vegas,” DeCree said. “They like to splurge and experience everything in one trip. We’re seeing the lower end struggle the most and repeat visitation is a huge piece of business with people coming two to three times a year. Las Vegas is a supply-driven demand market. People come for an experience. Vegas is fantastic at reinventing itself every couple of years. Allegiant Stadium and Sphere are demand drivers.”
Significant investment continues in Las Vegas, particularly on the Strip, DeCree said. Seven billion in major construction projects is scheduled to open over the next three years: the Hard Rock on the former Mirage site, the A’s baseball stadium, and redevelopment of the former Tropicana Las Vegas site.
“Casinos are spending hundreds of millions of dollars, and billions in the Venetian’s case, to upgrade facilities and bring people here,” DeCree said. “When we look at some of the demand issues and visitation is down, it’s temporary in our view. We think people will come back. If they don’t come back this year or next year, they’ll certainly come back in 2028 when new things open and there’s more to see. We’re having a struggle now, but that’s going to change. All the private and public money invested in Las Vegas is a good indicator of future demand.”
DeCree said those between the ages of 35 and 45 are driving revenue in Las Vegas as part of the K-shaped economy. It seems like entertainment in Las Vegas caters to the higher end, especially with the Sphere, he noted.
“You talk to folks who don’t come to Las Vegas, and they want to come to see the Sphere,” DeCree said. “They’re waiting for their favorite band. So the next thing, whether it’s the NBA or A’s, will absolutely draw people to the city. At the end of the day, they will come, because you can get it all here.”
Jonas agreed that the issues are with the lower tiers. The U.S. has become fairly saturated from a gaming perspective, and in most places in the country, people can drive 30-60 minutes to get in front of a slot machine. In some places, they can sit in their living room and gamble on their phone.
“Are there properties here that don’t have the level of specialness that ‘I can’t get at my local casino’? Probably, where you don’t have the same capital investment or the same velvet-rope feel to put on Instagram and feel proud about it,” Jonas said. “To an extent you’re seeing that and not just in gaming, but with restaurants too.”
When it comes to the mid- and lower-value properties in Las Vegas, there’s less to do than there used to be, DeCree said.
“Vegas is great at reinventing itself,” DeCree said. “Some of the companies are working on ways to better appeal to that customer segment. The high-end segment drives so much revenue and cash flow that we often forget about that segment or not pay attention to it. It’s 7% to 8% visitation and let’s find a way to get that customer back.”
As for the current economic environment and U.S. war with Iran, DeCree said consumer sentiment shapes whether they want to splurge and either get on a plane or drive to Las Vegas.
“The consumer in the U.S. is resoundingly resilient and likes to spend money, especially on experiences,” DeCree said. “We’re seeing consumers spend the same since the war in Iran started. That could change the longer it persists, but for now the consumer is going about their business, particularly when it comes to entertainment and hospitality.”
Inflation has been topical and the longer the war persists, it can impact budgets, but the consumer needs to feel that for a period of time before starting to make changes, DeCree said. Mortgage rates and real estate values are two of the better metrics to predict demand.
“When gas prices are low, that’s very helpful for casinos,” Jonas said. “When gas prices are high, it’s not completely linear. There’s a period of time you will absorb it. Particularly at the high end, if you’re spending $600 to $800 a night, spending an extra $50 to $60 on gas coming from California is not a deal breaker. That low- to mid-end is really feeling the brunt of that uncertainty and the brunt of inflationary pressures. It’s naive to think it can’t evolve.”
