J.P. Morgan tweaked its fourth-quarter earnings estimates for Boyd Gaming, reflecting a stronger than expected showing for regional gaming operators. Morgan’s previous stock price outlook was $74, but that has risen to $80 for 2025.
Analyst Joseph Greff repeated what the firm has been saying, that state-reported gaming revenue indicates solid demand since the election, as well as good demand before the election.
Not everything, however, was rosy in the investor note.
Boyd will report its fourth-quarter results on February 6 and similar to other regional gaming operators, Greff expects management’s outlook “to contemplate what has likely been depressed demand” as a result of the recent adverse and brutally cold weather that has been experienced across many parts of the country.
The fourth-quarter outlook for regionals offsets softer-than-expected market-wide gaming-revenue trends and unfavorable market-wide online sports betting hold rates, Greff said. That impacts Boyd’s online segment from its market-access partnership agreements.
For Boyd’s Midwest and South segment, Greff estimates that gaming revenue was up 5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter versus a 2% increase in the third quarter, a 1% increase in the second quarter, and a 1% decline in the first quarter.
“From a monthly perspective, we estimate Boyd’s Midwest & South gaming revenue was up 4.5% year-over-year in October, up 12% in November, and up 13% in December, though we note a less favorable December calendar comparison with two fewer weekend days,” Greff said. “We note that on a same-store basis, excluding its new Treasure Chest land-based property where gaming revenue was up 81% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, Boyd’s Midwest and South gaming revenue was up 1%.”
For the fourth quarter, J.P. Morgan forecasts the Midwest and South segment EBITDA of $193 million ($187 million previously), downtown Las Vegas EBITDAR of $22 million ($27 million, previously), online segment EBITDAR of $31 million ($41.5 million, previously), and Las Vegas locals EBITDAR of $109 million ($107 million, previously).
For 2025, they now forecast Midwest and South segment EBITDAR $750 million ($738 million, previously) and downtown Las Vegas EBITDAR of $78 million ($85 million, previously), while its Las Vegas locals and online segment EBITDAR remain largely unchanged.
“Net-net, our total adjusted EBITDAR estimates (net of corporate expenses) go to $355 million for the fourth quarter ($362 million, previously) and $1.32 billion for 2025 ($1.31 billion, previously),” Greff wrote.
Looking out to 2026, they forecast total adjusted EBITDAR of $1.335 billion versus consensus of $1.38 billion, which implies 1% year-over-year growth and roughly flattish margins, Greff said.
