Initiating coverage of Full House Resorts with a Buy rating, Texas Capital Securities analyst David Bain stressed the company’s long-term prospects. His views were published in a May 6 investor note.
Bain forecast 2029 cash flow that was 210 percent greater than 2024’s. This was done mostly on the strength of a permanent American Place casino in Waukegan, circa 2027, and on revisions to Full House’s Chamonix resort in Cripple Creek.
In 2024, Full House had cash flow of $49 million. Bain predicted that number would ascend to $151 million in 2029. While $37.5 million would come by way of Chamonix, $90.5 million would be derived from the permanent American Place, with the balance generated by Full House’s three smaller casinos in Mississippi, Indiana and Nevada.
“We believe recent capital markets volatility drove outsized stock price disruption as investors misunderstood FLL’s timeline/need for final permanent [American Place] funding, creating a near-term stock buying opportunity,” Bain theorized. He projected cash-flow growth this year (24 percent in 2024) and next (19 percent growth in 2026) that would be even greater than that of Full House’s regional rivals.
Bain called Full House’s long-term upside “unique.” He allowed that construction cost and execution cost of American Place were challenges, but called out “strong ROI visibility and management’s successful development experience.”
The analyst noted that The Temporary at American Place reached its highest-ever revenue in March 2025, enjoying 13 percent more win per patron than the Illinois state average. It had been below Illinois’s average in 2024.
This growth was, Bain said, “demonstrating successful database building and strong location/demographic, in our view, despite [American Place’s] current temporary structure.” The permanent casino will boast 937 slot machines and 48 table games once finished, making it Full House’s largest gambling property.
As for Chamonix, recent Bain research had shown the elimination of low-return cost items, plus an awareness marketing push that was ramping up heading into the warm-weather months.
Since January 31, regional-gaming stocks are down 11 percent against a broader S&P 500 decline of six percent. Full House shares, however, have plunged 39 percent.
In response to such market skepticism, Bain noted that Full House doesn’t need American Place construction financing until early 2026, if it wishes to hit an August 2027 opening date. He added that the company “has alternative non-equity related financing options and if needed, Illinois legislature would likely grant an operating extension for its temporary casino.”
Emphasizing Full House’s executive-team’s experience, Bain said it was critical to achieving the price multiples he projected. He noted that CEO Dan Lee had more than quadrupled the cash flow of Pinnacle Entertainment when he ran it, a time in which Pinnacle opened several successful new casinos. Prior to his Pinnacle tenure, Lee was chief development officer for Steve Wynn’s Mirage Resorts “and was instrumental in the development and success of multiple iconic casino resorts.”
Bain also observed that Full House CFO Lewis Fanger was a close associate of Lee’s. The duo worked together at Wynn Resorts, Pinnacle, and Creative Casinos.
Full House Resorts reports its first-quarter earnings tomorrow.
