The Las Vegas Strip will close 2024 with six consecutive months of year-over-year declines in gaming revenue when December’s numbers are reported later this month. The last time the Strip decreased in five consecutive months pre-pandemic was January through May 2019. Analysts, however, aren’t fretting that it’s an ominous sign of what’s ahead for 2025.
The Strip generated $788.7 million in November gaming revenue, a decline of 3.9% from November 2023’s $820.8 million.
For the year, the Strip’s total win is down 0.8%.
The slot accounting calendar with two fewer weekend days in 2024, the lack of a normalized slot hold, and lower baccarat win contributed to the decline that would otherwise have been close to November 2023, third highest month in the state’s history.
Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli said the Strip faces a tough comparison in December, given the baccarat hold in 2023 was 22%. Deutsche is estimating a year-over-year decline in December in the high single digits.
Barry Jonas with Truist Securities said Strip gaming revenue fell in November, because baccarat win dropped 18%. Visitation rose 1%, though Strip revenue per room fell 22%, “likely reflecting the well-known softness in this past year’s F1 event. Despite the headline softness, we note better normalized results while Strip operators sound positive for growth in 2025 looking past tough first quarter comps of the Super Bowl.”
Jonas said Las Vegas operators see trends ahead as more consistent versus continuing tough comps. “Overall, management teams were confident in a return to growth in 2025, given a strong group/event calendar.”
Caesars management expects cash room revenue to finish up year-over-year largely led by December, Jonas said. He also sees fourth-quarter EBITDA in Las Vegas finishing at least flat to better year-over-year.
“January looks to grow year-over-year with CES strength before a decline in February given the Super Bowl comp,” Jonas said. “More broadly, management is bullish on Vegas in 2025, given strong group pacing with 2026 (ConAgg, State Farm) looking even better.”
Casino consultant Brendan Bussmann, managing partner of B Global, said the marketplace has faced its challenges, but is still good. The first-ever F1 in 2023 and other events helped make it difficult for gaming revenue to surpass those numbers in 2024. But 2024 also had economic uncertainty, with ongoing pressures from consumers over inflation.
“I’m not concerned about it, but we want to see revenue continue to go up,” Bussmann said. “This is about the long game and not the short game.”
Las Vegas visitation is up, with foreign visitors showing up in greater numbers, while domestic visitation is down, Bussmann said.
“I think 2025 will still be a good and solid year,” Bussmann said. “We’ll see where things go economically. Over the last four years, numbers on the gaming floor continue to excel, despite going through two technical recessions.”