Although Las Vegas room rates are soft in April, they’re solidifying in May and June. So reported Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas in an April 13 investor note.
However, Jonas also warned of a “volatile” macroeconomic picture and of a K-shaped recovery, one that preponderantly favors the high end at the expense of low-end consumers.
Saying that he remained cautious on first-quarter cash-flow trends, Jonas noted that room rates in the first three months of 2026 had improved toward the quarter’s end. He added that trends “continue to show a resilient high end with signs of inflection at the low end in May as operators start ramping promotional efforts.”
Room rates for MGM Resorts International hotels ended the first quarter down four percent. Those for Caesars Entertainment rose a point; weekend traffic was credited for the positive result, with weekdays rates said to be still struggling.
Jonas attributed the upside to the recent CON/AGG Expo March 3 through 7. Minus that show, rates were four percent off Strip-wide, four percent lower at Caesars and nine percent lower at MGM properties.
Although the Las Vegas Strip in general was down a point in February, MGM suffered five percent declivity and Caesars was down 11 percent. Over February weekends, however, the Strip rose three percent and MGM two percent, but Caesars’s hotels remained three percent down.
March saw a turnaround, with Strip rates up 10 percent overall. MGM’s hotels rose four percent and Caesars’s jumped 20 percent. The 140,000 CON/AGG attendees were held responsible for the leaps. Absent the expo, the Strip was down three percent and MGM plunged nine percent, while Caesars’s rates rose six percent.
Looking ahead, Jonas discerned meaningful improvement in the nascent second quarter. Caesars outpaced the Strip overall, up nine points to four. MGM continued to lag, down four percent. Said Jonas, “We think it’s possible for a positive RevPAR inflection this summer as Strip comps begin to ease. Still, we only have limited data for June at this point.”
To get there, the Strip would have to overcome a tenuous April. Jonas’s survey showed that room rates for MGM plummeted 15 percent, versus 12 percent for Caesars and eight percent for the Strip overall, “showing weakness across both midweek and weekends.” That was, though, an improvement from a previous Truist sampling that had the Strip 11 percent underwater and both MGM and Caesars lagging April 2025 by 17 points.
Caesars led the pack for May. Its rates vaulted 34 percent, against just one percent for MGM, but 11 percent for the general Strip. Jonas attributed the Roman Empire’s outperformance to a Caesars-exclusive State Farm Insurance conference.
Room rates for June, though not as dramatically higher, were encouraging for Jonas. He discerned a five percent overall upturn, with MGM two points better and Caesars three points.
June’s weekend rates were lagging. Weekday prices were 19 percent higher across the Strip, 16 percent at MGM, and nine percent at Caesars.
“Unsurprisingly, the high-end has consistently outperformed the total Strip Proxy as these customers have been resilient, despite the geopolitical and macro uncertainties,” wrote Jonas, turning to the subject of the K-shaped bounce back.
Jonas observed that first-quarter room rates were six percent higher for high-end accommodations, those costing $300 a night or more. At the same time, they were seven-percent lower in the middle tiers and down 10 percent for low-end demographics, those spending less than $150 a night for lodging. The latter had dipped as low as minus 21 percent in February, before rebounding in March (up 10 percent).
January was the weakest month for middle-tier room rates, down 12 percent. They recovered to minus eight percent in February and were still two percent underwater in March.
The high end carried the Strip in March, up five percent. By comparison, the bottom fell out of the other tiers, with middle-market rooms down 24 percent and the low-end ones down 22 percent.
Those rates were shored up in May, with high-end rooms vaulting 18 percent and low-rate ones higher by 10 percent. Middle-tier customers, however, were not picking up, as those rooms saw prices dip three percent.
“We think the Low-End proxy inflection seen in May could be partially attributed to the recently announced (MGM, Resorts World, and Caesars) all-inclusive promotion/package-type deals with a minimum stay required to help draw the value-oriented customer,” Jonas explained.
“While creative, it remains to be seen if non-inclusive pricing can meaningfully drive sustainably higher hotel occupancy, along with non-gaming and gaming spend,” the analyst continued. He noted that the lower end was sagging again in June.
Jonas held out hope in the form of a “solid event calendar” on the Strip, with the Las Vegas Golden Knights set to make the NHL playoffs. Also bolstering the lineup were a K-Pop boy band and professional wrestling, with Metallica coming later in the year.
