With no more summer holidays, September’s slow start in Macau’s casinos is expected, according to Jefferies Equity Research analyst Andrew Lee in a September 9 investor note.
Lee deemed the early September results “inconsequential,” calling the October week of Golden Holidays the real harbinger of casino performance going forward. He added, “We believe Galaxy [Entertainment] remains the easiest to favor among our global coverage, given the negative backdrop in Macau.”
During the first week of September, ending on the eighth, daily gross gaming revenue in Macau was an average of $73.8 million. Mass-market play was five to eight percent down from August, while VIP action was from seven to 10 percent off the pace. High rollers lost 3.2 percent to 3.5 percent of wagers.
Lee estimates that the balance of the month should average $68.5 million to $74.7 million, for a monthly aggregate of between $2.1 billion and $2.2 billion.
The analyst noted that Macanese tourism is up 37 percent so far this year, predominantly from Mainland China, where tourism to Macau has risen 45 percent from 2023. “In our view, although it is still 17% lower relative to 2019, visitation to the region should continue to improve and drive GGR growth in the coming months,” Lee added.
Casino-stock valuations, he continued, would still be weighed down by macroeconomic issues in China proper. Another headwind is ramped-up promotional activity by the six casino concessionaires.
Lee favors Galaxy for its balance sheet and recapture of market share. His view of MGM Resorts International moved more negative, along with Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts, which all need some catalytic event to shift them out of neutral.
