The new year is off to a stronger start than 2024, according to Jefferies Equity Research analyst Anne Ling. In a January 6 investor note, she said the early data from Macau “supports our bullish view.”
Calling the numbers “modestly positive for stocks,” Ling cautioned that revenue would probably slacken later in January, rebounding with Chinese New Year, always a benchmark holiday for Macau. “Looking ahead, we anticipate gaming-revenue acceleration in 2025 and favor growth vs. other U.S. markets at present,” she added.
Macanese gambling winnings by casinos were 16 percent stronger over the first five days of January than they were last December. Casinos won an average of $85 million per day, compared to last month’s $73.3 million.
In the initial week of January 2024, casinos in Macau averaged $78.5 million a day. This year’s early numbers are an eight percent increase.
Ling’s estimates for all of 2025 are more bullish than the government’s. Macanese officials expect the enclave’s gambling houses to take in $29.7 billion, while the analyst expects closer to $30.7 billion.
She noted that January is traditionally one of the slower months for Macau, until Chinese New Year, which begins January 29. Traffic from Zhuhai, however, should get a boost by looser visa rules, which debuted January 1.
With 3,800 rooms coming on line in 2025 following a 2024 renovation, Las Vegas Sands is Ling’s pick to be Macau’s top performer. She observed that the stock is at a historically low valuation, despite being buttressed by revenue growth in Singapore.
Ling also favored Galaxy Entertainment as a taker of Macanese market share, “as both Sands China and Galaxy have the scale and resources to lead the current market, based on the shifting importance of nongaming assets and the rise of mass-market consumers.”
