Gambling revenue in Macau could accelerate as much as 14 percent this month, according to Jefferies Equity Research analyst Anne Ling. She published her forecast in a June 16 investor note.
The low end of Ling’s growth projection was nine percent. She cautioned that the spike was enhanced by transitory events, such as conventions and one-offs.
Ling’s forecast comes at a time when the Macanese government has raised its forecast for the enclave’s casinos. It is now projecting almost $2.5 billion for June, compared to a previous prediction of $2.3 billion.
Jefferies’ research indicated that gambling win for the week ending June 15 was $84.8 million per day on average. That was five percent higher than the preceding week and leapt 29 percent from the same week in 2024.
Macanese casino win sped up, even though the mass-market and VIP sectors were slightly down. Ling attributed the increase to strength in the premium-mass segment.
Jefferies expects at least $76.7 million per day through the balance of June and no more than $84.1 million. That would imply at least $2.4 billion in monthly gross gaming revenue (GGR).
The Macau government has projected $2.3 billion a month in gambling win through the balance of 2025. “The above-trend month is notable, given the recent decrease in the Macau government expectation,” Ling added.
A recent visit to Macau suggested, Ling wrote, “that near-term GGR remains solid with the help of new properties and [meeting] events, while competition level has increased with concessionaires now shifting more focus to absolute EBITDA, based on our channel checks.”
Ling allowed that the sustainability of the premium-mass sector was difficult to foresee. She added, “The backdrop of economic uncertainty remains a key factor.”
The analyst concluded that the newer casinos in Macau are still breaking in, but she expects the top line to be sustained, even as competition heats up. Although she continued to extol Las Vegas Sands and Galaxy Entertainment as top stock picks, she added Wynn Resorts to most-favored status.
