J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff reduced his third-quarter estimates of Penn Entertainment’s cash flow, due to preliminary Penn guidance and updated gross gaming revenue figures. Greff also trimmed his estimates for the fourth quarter and for all of 2025, citing ongoing construction projects, continuing competitive pressures, and a softer calendar next year for brick-and-mortar gambling.
Greff lowered his projection of Penn’s third-quarter cash flow from $505 million to $473 million. However, he forecasted a narrower online loss. Instead of $120 million in negative return on investment (ROI), he modeled $95 million. Penn Entertainment will report third-quarter earnings on Thursday.
Looking ahead into the fourth quarter, Greff foresaw brick-and-mortar cash flow of $462 million, down from $473 million. He also prognosticated a broadening of online ROI losses from $61 million to $66 million. The latter was widened by $5 million worth of low hold in October.
For all of 2025, Greff shaved one percent off his $1.9 billion cash-flow projection. He made no change in his prediction of a $75 million negative return on ESPN Bet and other digital gambling.
The analyst stuck by his Neutral rating on Penn stock and $19-per-share price target. “As we have written before,” he added, “we think the single biggest mover for the stock and investor sentiment is some degree of, or path to, success for ESPN BET.”
Of the latter, Greff wrote, “We think this will take time and it is presently too early to measure its ability to compete against larger platforms.” The upside, he noted, was that investors have time to become comfortable with Penn and ESPN Bet alike.
In other Penn-related news, ESPN Bet announced the linkage today of its accounts with ESPN proper, an event that had been seen as a nodal moment for the application. The linkage enables users to track their bets both within ESPN Bet and at EPSN.com.
In a press release, ESPN Bet promised users “more personalized bets and timely promotions based on their favorite sports, teams, players, and fantasy rosters.”
Penn’s chief technology officer, Aaron LaBerge, said “Account linking allows us to better serve and engage our users by unlocking key personalization and promotional capabilities. This feature is just the beginning of deeper integrations that will further differentiate the ESPN Bet experience.”
Added ESPN Fantasy Vice President Mike Morrison, “Linking ESPN and ESPN BET accounts is part of the seamless, integrated betting experience we envisioned from the start. No other company in the betting space can offer the level of personalization or interconnected experience that ESPN BET provides.”
