After seeing the latest Las Vegas Strip gaming revenue and visitation numbers, a gaming analyst lowered his earnings outlook for MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment through 2027. Barry Jonas with Truist Securities issued a note to investors last week saying the firm is lowering its EBITDA outlook for MGM, down 1% in 2025 and 7% for 2026 and 2027. He also lowered Caesars by 1% in 2025, 1% in 2026, and 2% in 2027.
For December, Jonas said revenue per room was trending down 13% year-over-year, while average daily room rates were down 1%, with occupancy tracking down 12% year-over-year.
“We lower our 2025, 2026, and 2027 EBITDA for MGM and Caesars, reflecting more conservatism on a Strip inflection to growth,” Jonas said. “Our MGM price target moves to $45 from $47. That said, we still view MGM and Caesars as inexpensive, with Strip challenges well known.”
Jonas pointed to November Strip gross gaming revenue being down less than 1% year-over-year, primarily on lower table and baccarat win. Normalized gaming revenue and total casino win excluding baccarat were up 3% and 1% year-over-year.
Locals casinos’ gaming revenue remains strong, up 6% year-over-year, though normalized was up 1% Y/Y, Jonas said.
Visitation metrics and Strip revenue per room are still soft, with visitors down 5% year-over-year, though convention attendance was flat.
Per the Nevada Gaming Control Board, slot gaming revenue ($422 million) was up 5.5% year-over-year, with handle up 5%, but hold was flat. Tables game revenue ($363 million) fell 7% year-over-year, though drop was up 1%; hold was down 118 basis points.
Baccarat win ($137 million) came in softer, down 6% year-over-year, with hold (18%) down 232 basis points, though drop was higher, being up 9%, Jonas said.
With operational slot/table units being flat to down 2%, win/unit/day was +5%/-4% year-over-year, Jonas said.
Sports win of $29 million rose 20% year-over-year, with handle up 4% and hold up 96 basis points.
“Total casino win excluding baccarat (a measure we use to gauge the health of the mass market) was up 1% year-over-year, as well as total normalized gaming revenue up +3%.”
With the November locals market up 6% year-over-year and the fourth quarter up 3%, slot revenue rose 11%, with handle up 1% and hold up 56 basis points. Tables revenue fell 12%, as drop fell 4%, while hold was down 114 basis points, Jonas said.
November 2025 had an extra Friday, but one less Sunday versus November 2024, Jonas said. For Nevada slot accounting, there was a small net positive impact year-over-year, as November 2025 had an extra Friday pulled in from October, but had an extra Sunday pushed out into December, he noted.
