Light & Wonder game installations are on the upswing in Australia. That is according to a J.P. Morgan investor note penned by analyst Don Carducci and released June 12.
The next major event facing Light & Wonder is a pending ruling in Aristocrat Leisure’s intellectual-property lawsuit. A motion on whether or not to widen the discovery process is due to be ruled upon on June 23.
Carducci expected the court to rule in Aristocrat’s favor. “While short-term impacts remain likely, we are constructive on longer-term trends and opportunities,” he wrote of the court case.
Although Lightning Gongs was described as Light & Wonder’s primary catalyst for slot machine growth in Australia, installations of Shenlong Unleashed were said to have increased for their eighth straight month, comprising six percent now of Light & Wonder’s installed base.
Huff N’ Even More Puff was Light & Wonder’s most outperforming game, running at 1.8 times house average. Next were Huff N’ More Puff and Lightning Gongs, each performing at 1.1 times house average.
On the downside, installations of Huff N’ More Puff were down for the fourth consecutive month. Also, net installations dropped in the wake of Light & Wonder’s decision to retire its Jewel of the Dragon game.
“Lightning Gongs retains strong install momentum; and as a result, we believe this, Shenlong and Huff N’ Even More Puff will be the key drivers of incremental growth from here,” Carducci assured investors.
Assessing the parallel setback that was Dragon Train litigation, Carducci chronicled that it represented 4,700 installations in New South Wales and Queensland through May 2025. “Following the Dragon Train injunction and subsequent uncertainty, net installs have sensibly gone slightly backwards,” he wrote.
To contextualize Dragon Train’s importance, Carducci noted that during the same timeframe, 15,800 Dragon Link machines were installed, as were 4,200 Lightning Link machines and 5,100 Dragon Cash games. “Unsurprisingly, Dragon Train had been the key driver of the climbing turnover ratio to date; hence, the pause in installs means no mix benefit/effect,” he added.
Market-share leaders in New South Wales continued to be Aristocrat and Konami. However, Light & Wonder was deemed the leading supplier in Queensland.
Meanwhile, Light & Wonder’s Thunder Empire was averaging 500 installations per month. Its installed base sat at approximately 3,000 machines across Queensland and New South Wales.
“In the longer term,” Carducci concluded, “we believe market conditions will naturally favor both [Light & Wonder and Aristocrat] as a near-duopoly; however, tariff uncertainty and litigation overhang will likely continue to weigh on sentiment in the near term.”
