The ESPN Bet brand has gained momentum since the launch of the sports-betting app in November, according to a Wall Street analyst.
David Katz with Jefferies Equities Research released a digital-gaming-brand matrix this week that shows ESPN Bet reached number three, jumping ahead of BetMGM, which was third in November, and ahead of Bet365 that’s now up one spot to fourth. BetMGM fell to fifth in the ranking, led by FanDuel in first and DraftKings in second.
The Jefferies matrix incorporates app-level data, in addition to social-media engagement and web-traffic data that provide insights in brand momentum and serve as a proxy for market share, Katz said. Since 2022, Jefferies has incorporated app-level data into its analysis. As of September, downloads and web-traffic duration were the heaviest-weighted data points in the ranks, with the former being the largest, followed by search interest and web visits.
“FanDuel leads in Google search interest, web-traffic visits, and webpage-visit duration score, while ESPN Bet leads in app downloads given its recent launch,” Katz said. “DraftKings remains in second place for all four respective categories.”
Penn Entertainment replaced Barstool Sportsbook with ESPN Bet and the change has generated a lot of positive publicity from analysts.
Shaun Kelley with Bank of America upgraded its shares of Penn on better-than-expected initial cut-through of the ESPN Bet app. Initial state market-share figures were considered encouraging, trending to 9%-10%, and the app is well positioned, with an expected visible marketing campaign in the first half of 2024, especially with the launch of its BetMode in time for the Super Bowl.
Kelley also believes that ESPN Bet is growing the nation’s sports betting market by attracting more women.
In the Katz matrix, BetMGM at number five was followed by BetRivers (Rush Street Interactive), Caesars Entertainment, Tipico, Fanatics Sportsbook, PointsBet, Wynn Bet, Bally’s, and Hard Rock Casino.
Katz said Jeffries’s favored names globally are FanDuel, DraftKings, MGM, and Rush Street Interactive.
“We continue to highlight the positive correlations between market-share performance at DraftKings and FanDuel, as they remain top operators across most categories in our index, as well as in gross gaming revenue and that DraftKings has demonstrated strength in share of late over FanDuel,” Katz said. “We note that BetMGM market share has been declining recently and has been going head to head with Bet365 in terms of rankings. In addition, we remain constructive on igaming-focused operator Rush Street Interactive, where superior economics and higher margins will likely lead to strong returns in following years, in our view.”
Although the route to legalization is longer in some states, Katz said they believe the proliferation of sports betting and igaming will continue. For 2024, they’re monitoring the possibility of legalization in Missouri and Georgia.
“We are also keenly focused on the entry of Fanatics, which is showing some improvement and the forthcoming entry of ESPN Bet by Penn, which is highly important for those entities and is expected to be relevant for market shares broadly,” Katz said.
