Jefferies Equity Research data supports Aristocrat Leisure continuing to grow market share through the third quarter of 2025. That’s according to Jefferies analyst Kai Erman in a July 3 investor note.
Indeed, Erman thought Aristocrat’s 50 percent share of the Australia and New Zealand markets is “sustainable” for another full year. In the United States, Aristocrat’s “momentum remains robust, with sequential outright sale improvement driven by new product.”
In addition to the outperformance of Aristocrat’s Phoenix Link and Baron games, U.S. growth was driven by House of the Dragon, Hyper Link, and Spooky Link. The company also won the rights to popular board game “Monopoly” away from arch-rival Light & Wonder, for which it was a top-three title.
Erman thought Aristocrat could install 4,000 machines over the medium term, adding that “concern on mature market share does not consider legacy units in install base fleet.” Newer product is accelerating the replacement cycle, with legacy slots giving way to more recent games.
The analyst also opined that the combined installed base of International Game Technology (IGT) and Everi Holdings (now merged under Apollo Management) gives Aristocrat an opportunity to make inroads. Erman explained, “Whilst we expect IGT/Everi comes back to the market more reinvigorated, we expect this will take time, given noncompete timing to join IGT and expectation for initial focus on cost out; conversion of legacy units can underpin Aristocrat growth for several years.”
Following an anemic February, Erman said, market indications showed three months of growth in the U.S. gaming landscape.
As for Australia, data showed Aristocrat climbing back to 50 percent of the market, with recent research showing the prospect of achieving 55 percent to 60 percent penetration, driven by the success of the Baron game cabinet. Both Cashman and More Chill are, he said, performing exceptionally well, as are Thunder Empire and Super Grand.
“Whilst Aristocrat has executed significant share gains to date,” Erman concluded, “we think this can continue in the U.S. throughout the medium term, as Interactive ramps up to be a more material earnings driver.”
