After checking out Aristocrat’s formal presentation at the Australasian Gaming Expo this week, Jefferies Equity Research analyst Kai Erman weighed in with his thoughts. They were published in an August 11 investor note.
Erman reported that Aristocrat’s United States product lineup “looks deep enough to supplement the momentum of Phoenix Link with other titles performing well,” such as Spooky Link. He also forecast the company to retain fully half of Australian ship share.
Citing current Eilers survey findings, Erman predicted Aristocrat would hold 30 percent of the outright-sale market in the U.S., along with 40 percent of the gaming-operations market. In addition to puissant performances by Spooky Link, Mo Mo Mo Mummy, and Bao Zhao Zhu Fu, the onset of 2026 would bring Monopoly to the Aristocrat repertory.
Tariffs had “no material financial impact” on the company, reported to be assembling its machines in the U.S. It was also said to be skirting tariffs by sending machines from Australia to Alberta, Canada, for importation. That shipping period lasts eight to 10 weeks.
“Regional gaming demand remains mixed; however, [the] general trend is positive, with investor focus recently on potential weakness of [the Las Vegas Strip] on any downturn in consumer spending and travel to Nevada,” Erman reported. Tax-law changes to favor more capital investment were believed to provide a boost for Aristocrat and others in its sector.
Erman said that Aristocrat’s Down Under market share had recovered to 50 percent, driven by the Baron cabinet, and was continuing. “Baron orders seem robust, particularly with [the] success of multi-link family rollouts seeing strong customer take-up,” he added.
The analyst opined that Aristocrat “has a strong pipeline of games developed under current national standards that can be released after the roll-out of the new national standards for slot machine development,” which will occur in February 2026.
Aristocrat executives said that game-development processes were accelerating, especially in the second half of this year. Faster game rollout would continue into 2026.
Looking back to North America, execs were pleased that Aristocrat had won the ilottery contract in Michigan. Negotiations were “ongoing,” but a July 2026 debut is expected.
Management also stated its belief that Light & Wonder games were “tainted” by pilfered Aristocrat intellectual property, beyond Dragon Train and Jewel of the Dragon (both withdrawn). They said they would “continue to push for extended scope of discovery in ongoing legal proceedings,” hopefully through the end of 2025.
