Acres case study indicates advantage players have edge playing video poker

March 20, 2024 1:11 PM
Photo: Shutterstock
  • Rege Behe, CDC Gaming Reports
March 20, 2024 1:11 PM
  • Rege Behe, CDC Gaming Reports

A new case study indicates that a small population of advantage players can reliably beat casinos and command a disproportionate share of loyalty programs.

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Las Vegas-based Acres Manufacturing today released the case study powered by its Video Poker Analyzer. The VPA evaluated more than three million hands played by over 1,000 identified carded players.

In each game of video poker, a five-card hand was dealt. Players then decided what cards to hold or discard in an attempt to make a winning hand. Acres’ VPA compared each player’s decision against the mathematically optimal strategy for any hand dealt. With each player error identified and assigned a dollar value, a skill rating was assigned to help predict the casino’s profit and loss each time the carded player returned.

“Our Video Poker Analyzer case study reveals the true threat advantage players impose on casino profitability and their impact on the efficacy of player reinvestment through the casino’s loyalty program,” said Noah Acres in a statement. “By clearly identifying advantage players, Acres enables casinos to restrict their marketing offers and redeploy them to earn incremental play from more profitable lower-skilled players.”

The video poker play analysis, conducted at Las Vegas local casinos featuring heavy video poker play, determined that advantage players comprise approximately 1% of the casino’s player population. These players collectively were responsible for a loss to the casino equivalent to 25.64% of its carded win on video poker during the period of the study.

Additionally, over two-thirds of the advantage players profited from their play during the period. Since this group accounted for 26% of video poker coin-in, casino loyalty programs rewarded each AP significantly more than higher margin players.

The Video Poker Analyzer is powered by Acres’ Foundation hardware that’s compatible with any modern slot machine and casino management system.

Acres stated that its analysis and the case study demonstrate that a casino operator deploying its VPA may see more than a 45% upside to its video poker profits through a combination of excluding and reducing unprofitable advantage players from the active player base and through the redeployment of valuable marketing dollars to those players with the highest upside potential.