A nearly hour-long discussion at the Racing and Gaming Conference in Saratoga Springs on Tuesday wrapped up with a sobering 2-2 split among experts on whether a single casino will open in the New York City area by the end of 2023.

Both former Gov. David Paterson – now a senior advisor for Las Vegas Sands Corp. – and New York Gaming Association President Michael Kane answered in the negative. And while Assemblyman Gary Pretlow and Meadowlands Racetrack operator Jeff Gural were more optimistic, all four men agreed that the regulatory process in the state will be both rigorous and daunting.

Panel moderator and conference organizer Patrick Brown said that bids may not even be due before Jan. 1, 2023, and a “gaming suitability review” and a required two-thirds “yes” vote by still-to-be-formed community advisory committees will be formidable hurdles.